The No. 14 Texas Longhorns are entering the Allstate Sugar Bowl as big underdogs as they prepare to battle the No. 6 Georgia Bulldogs. The game will start at 8:45 p.m. ET and ESPN has the TV rights.
Texas Longhorns vs. Georgia Bulldogs Betting Preview
Texas is a significant underdog in this game and is currently getting 11 points. The Longhorns are also receiving +315 moneyline odds while the Bulldogs are -425. This tilt should provide several decent live betting opportunities, and Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 58 points.
Both of these teams have been profitable this season as the Longhorns have gained 1.1 units while the Bulldogs are up 2.3 units.
The Longhorns have gone 9-4 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Bulldogs are 11-2 SU.
The Longhorns are on the rebound after a 39-27 defeat to Oklahoma on December 1 in which Sam Ehlinger completed 23-of-36 passes for 349 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Ehlinger (42 yards on 15 rush attempts, two TDs) also led the running attack and was complemented by Tre Watson (39 yards on 13 carries) in the loss. Collin Johnson (eight receptions, 177 yards, one TD) and Lil’Jordan Humphrey (seven catches, 51 yards, one TD) handled the receiving duties.
Back on December 1, Alabama took care of this Georgia team by a score of 35-28. The Dawgs defensive unit allowed the Crimson Tide to rush for 157 yards on 29 attempts, including three rush TDs. Jaylen Waddle had a good showing in the win, posting 113 yards on four catches for Alabama. For Georgia, Jake Fromm completed 25-of-39 passes for 301 yards and three touchdowns. D’Andre Swift had a monster statline. In addition to 75 yards on 16 rush attempts (and one TD), Swift also reeled in six catches for 63 yards and a score.
Texas has run the ball on 53.7 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Georgia has an overall rush percentage of 62.5 percent. The Longhorns have produced 151 rush yards/game and have 21 touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Dawgs are logging 252 rushing yards per game and have 30 total rush TDs.
The Longhorns offense has tallied 264 yards/contest in the air overall and has 28 passing scores so far. The Dawgs have produced 227 pass yards per game and have 31 total pass TDs.
Texas has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 136 yards and throw for 265 yards per game. The Georgia defense has allowed 180.5 yards per game to opposing passers and 130.6 yards per game on the ground. The Dawgs are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 5.05 to opponents, while the Longhorns have given up a 6.54 ANY/A.
Offensively, Ehlinger is up to 2,969 passing yards on the year, and has connected on 65 percent of his 370 attempts with 23 scores through the air and only three interceptions. He’s got an 8.01 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 5.88 over the last two games.
Collin Johnson, Tre Watson and Devin Duvernay have collectively accounted for 447 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns as a trio over the last two outings.
For the home team, Jake Fromm has connected on 173-of-256 passes for 2,362 yards, 23 TDs and five INTs. Fromm’s ANY/A sits at 9.32 for the year and 10.58 across his past two outings.
We’re looking for the Dawgs to control tempo by pounding the defense with their running backs. Isaac Nauta (391 receiving yards, three TDs this season) has chipped in lately, but D’Andre Swift (932 rush yards, nine rush TDs, 267 receiving yards, two receiving TDs) and Elijah Holyfield (877 rush yards, six rush TDs) have been significant factors in the Georgia offense.
NCAA Pick: Texas Longhorns vs. Georgia Bulldogs
SU Winner – Georgia, ATS Winner – Georgia, O/U – Under
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Notes
Team Betting Notes
Texas has produced 3.4 yards per carry across its past three games and 3.2 over its last two.
Georgia has averaged 6.9 yards per carry over its last three contests and 5.4 over its last two.
The Georgia offense has lost seven fumbles this season while Texas has lost five.
The Longhorns offense has created six pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Bulldogs have accounted for 11 such plays.
The Texas defense has allowed 14 pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Georgia has given up six such plays.
The Texas offense has created eight rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Georgia has created 36 such runs.
The Longhorns defense has allowed 12 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Bulldogs have given up seven such runs.
The Texas defense has sacked opposing QBs 30 times this year. Georgia has registered just 22 sacks.
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