The No.4-seeded Texas Longhorns square off against the No.5-seeded Baylor Bears in the second round of the Big 12 tournament at Sprint Center. The game starts at 12:30 pm ET on Thursday, Mar. 10 and can be seen on ES2 and ES3.
The Longhorns defeated Oklahoma State 62-50 in their last game. Kerwin Roach Jr. was the team’s high scorer with 15 points on 6-for-9 shooting. The Bears, meanwhile, are feeling some disappointment after the 69-58 loss at the hands of West Virginia in their last game. Taurean Prince played well, accounting for his fifth double-double of the season with 19 points and 10 rebounds.
Based on each team’s statistical profile, ball protection could play an integral role in this matchup. Texas commits the 14th-fewest miscues in the nation (TO% of 15.7%), while Baylor’s ball-hawking defense forces the 22nd-most (opponents’ TO% of 20.3%).
Both teams have won a game in the season series. The Bears had the upper hand in the most recent game, a 78-64 win. Johnathan Motley had a standout performance in the victory, putting up 24 points, four rebounds, one steal, and two blocks.
The Longhorns come into this game 20-11 Straight Up (SU) and 16-14 Against The Spread (ATS). Texas’s three-point defense can be considered one of the best in the nation, allowing just 6.0 three-pointers per game.
On the other side, the Bears have 21-10 SU and 10-14-1 ATS records. Baylor has done particularly well ATS over its past 10 matchups, going 7-3. The Bears are the better of the two teams when it comes to assist-to-turnover ratio, ranking 29th in Division I at 1.43.
Following the Bears’ latest win over Texas, they evened up the head-to-head record over their most recent meetings, 5-5 SU. They are even ATS at 5-5 in their most recent meetings as well. When it comes to field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers, Baylor held the edge in all three of these categories once in the last five meetings. Texas never did so in those games.
Predictions: SU Winner – Baylor, ATS Winner – Baylor
Notes
The Baylor Bears have a defensive rating of 103.0 (ranked 51st), while the Texas Longhorns have an offensive rating of 107.9 (ranked 127th).
With 66.4 possessions and 1.079 points per possession, the Texas Longhorns perform worse on both metrics than the Baylor Bears. Baylor averages 67.4 possessions and 1.151 points per possession.
Baylor has an average effective field goal percentage of 52.3%. Texas is a losing 3-6 when opponents have a similar or higher effective field goal percentage.
The Baylor Bears rank fourth in assists per game, making an average of 18.4. The Texas Longhorns are among the worst in the country with 11.3 assists per game (ranked 308th).
Texas, the 62nd-ranked team in blocked shots, records an average of 4.4 per game. Baylor does worse, ranked 102nd with 4.0.
The Baylor Bears average 8.0 steals per game, ranked 23rd in the nation. The Texas Longhorns have a 4-3 record when they give up at least 8 steals.
