The No. 12 Baylor Bears take on the Texas Longhorns this week in a game that will feature the country’s fifth-leading receiver, Corey Coleman (1,314 yards, 20 TDs). With losses in two of its last three, Baylor (9-2) comes into this game looking to rekindle a season that has lost its spark. The game kicks off Saturday, Dec 5 at 12:00 p.m. ET and will be shown on ESPN.
In last week’s matchup, Baylor lost to TCU 28-21. Devin Chafin had a huge game running the ball in the loss, rushing 26 times for 119 yards and two TDs. Johnny Jefferson put up 82 rushing yards on 12 carries. Texas also came up short, getting nipped by Texas Tech 48-45. Chris Warren III had a great game running the ball for the Longhorns, rushing 25 times for 276 yards and four TDs.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is currently not available and the Longhorns are a big 20-point underdog.
Sitting at 9-2 Straight Up (SU) and 5-6 Against The Spread (ATS), the Bears will look to improve heading into Week 14. In their five most recent matchups, the Bears went 3-2 SU and 1-4 ATS. A focal point of Baylor’s offense is the running game, which ranks fourth in the country with 291.6 rushing yards per game. During their last five games, the Bears have improved their pass coverage, giving up an average of 235.8 passing yards. A strong pass rush will help the Bears win this game. That may not be too difficult with the Longhorns ranking 110th in sacks allowed with 2.9 per game. In the first quarter, Baylor is tough to stop, putting up a Division I-leading 18.2 points in the first 15 minutes. Baylor’s offense moves at a torrid pace. They rank fourth in Division I with an average of 82.5 offensive snaps per game.
Over on the other sideline, the Longhorns head into Week 14 with records of 4-7 for both ATS and SU. Over their last five games, the Longhorns have a SU and ATS record of 2-3 for those betting with them. Chances are Texas will continue to rely on its run game, where its 231.1 rushing yards per game ranks 16th in the nation. Shifting to the other side of the ball, it might be tough for the Bears to keep up with Texas’s defense in a few areas. The Bears are matching up with Texas’s defense at an inopportune time. Over the last five games, Texas’s opponents have only averaged 204.6 yards through the air. The Bears need to be careful with the football against the Longhorns. Their defense ranks 22nd in the country with 0.9 fumbles recovered per game. Texas has put in some strong special teams performances this season. The team has averaged 118.8 return yards per game, ranking them ninth in the nation.
Predictions: SU Winner – Baylor, ATS Winner – Baylor
Notes
Baylor is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games.
Baylor is 20-4 SU in its last 24 games.
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Baylor’s last 12 games.
Baylor is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home.
Baylor is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games at home.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baylor’s last 6 games at home.
Baylor is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Texas.
Baylor is 4-13 SU in its last 17 games when playing Texas.
Baylor is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Texas.
Texas is 4-1 SU when leading at the start of the 4th quarter this season. Baylor is 9-0 SU when leading after three quarters.
Baylor is an even 2-2 SU in games where it comes out ahead in the turnover battle, yet undefeated (7-0 SU) when losing the turnover battle.
The Baylor defense has forced an average of 2.2 turnovers per game this season. Texas is 0-3 SU when turning the ball over at least 2.0 times in a game.
Since the start of last year, Baylor is 14-3 SU against Big 12 opponents, while Texas is 8-9 SU against in-conference foes.
The Baylor rushing attack is ranked fourth in the country, while the Texas run defense is only ranked 102nd. The Longhorns running game is ranked 16th, compared to the 52nd-ranked rush defense of the Bears.
