The Texas Longhorns stampede into the Coliseum to do battle with the (4) USC Trojans on Saturday, September 16th at 8:30 p.m. EST. This BIG-12 versus PAC-12 match-up in Southern California can be seen on FOX for your viewing entertainment. As of this write-up, the Trojans are a -16.5 point favorite and the total sits at 67.
The Longhorns rebounded from their shocking loss to Maryland in week one by routing San Jose State at home by a score of 56-0. Texas will need to keep that momentum going against a much more talented adversary this weekend.
The Trojans did their part in their conference statement game against Stanford last week. After the dust settled, USC looking every bit the part of a possible College Football Playoff national title contender dispatching of the Cardinal 42-24.
Texas Longhorns (1-1)
One of the biggest upsets of week one was the Longhorns losing to Maryland at home by a score of 51-41. Coming into that game, Texas was a 18 point favorite, which was also Tom Herman’s first game at the helm. Well, Herman must have really read them the riot act during practice as the Longhorns bounced back in a big way as they routed San Jose State by a score of 56-0.
The offense hasn’t been the problem in the early going, racking up 623 yards against the Spartans. Furthermore, Texas put up over 400 yards on the ground and get to face a USC team that has struggled mightily against the run.
Leading the way for the Longhorn’s ground attack is s Chris Warren III. Last week, he had 166 yards rushing on just 16 carries. He also scored two touchdowns. Obviously, they will need him to have a big game in this one. Overall, he has ran for 197 yards on 22 carries with the two scores.
The quarterback position for the Longhorns has been hit or miss through their first two games of the season. Starter Shane Buechele has completed 34 of 52 passes for 375 yards with two touchdowns and a pick. He will need to orchestrate the offense carefully, while managing the clock to keep the Trojans’ offense at bay.
There is plenty of talent for the Texas passing game to build on heading into this affair. Three receivers have all contributed nicely for the Longhorns. Wide outs Collin Johnson, Reggie Hemphill-Mapps and Armanti Foreman have caught just under 30 passes for almost 400 yards and three touchdown grabs.
Considering their 51 point let down against Maryland, statistically Texas has not been that bad. On defense, come in ranked 47th in total yards allowed giving in to 326 yards per game. They also are 46th in the nation against the pass (174 ypg) and 79th against the run (176 ypg). As a result, they are allowing 25.5 points per game, which is 72nd in the country.
(4) USC Trojans (2-0)
When the USC offense is humming, it can be a formidable attack that can rack-up plenty of yardage. Last week, quarterback Sam Darnold connected on 21 of his 26 passes for 316 yards and four touchdowns. Unfortunately, he also threw two more interceptions. Darnold has to limit his mistakes if he wants to take this unit to new heights in 2017.
Wide receiver Deontay Burnett is emerging as Sam Darnold’s favorite target. In the win versus San Jose State, the crafty wide out caught nine balls for 121 yards and two end zone appearances.
All totaled, Burnett has snatched up 16 balls for 263 yards and the two scores mentioned above. Teammate Steven Mitchell is no slouch, catching eight more passes for 133 yards and two more touchdowns.
The Trojans may have threw for 316 yards in the game, but they also ran for 309 yards on the day. Leading the way was tail back Stephen Carr, who ran for 119 yards on only 11 attempts. Back field mate Ronald Jones, added another 116 yards and two scores to the tally sheet. That is exactly the balance that coach Herman was looking for out of his potent offense.
Defensively, the Trojans are ranked 59th in total yards allowed (349.5 ypg). Their secondary has performed well, even though they have not seen an elite passing team to date. Even still, they are 20th in the nation allowing only 133 yards per contest. The front seven is the downfall for the Trojans. They gave up over 260 yards rushing against Western Michigan and another 170 against the Stanford Cardinal.
Prediction
The USC Trojans’ offense could put up some big numbers on Texas, but if the Longhorns can run the ball on them, then they will give up big numbers as well. Both defenses have been hit or miss and Texas will certainly challenge the Trojans’ secondary down the field.
I would like to evaluate which defense will have the better day but that is a complete enigma to me. I mean, Sam Darnold giveth and Sam Darnold taketh away. So your guess is as good as mine. Line setters have the total at 67 and that’s where I suggest that you lay your money in this affair.
Place your bet on what we know. We know that the USC offense is one of the better units in the country. We also know that the Longhorns can find plenty of yardage on the ground against the struggling front seven of the Trojans. That smells like points to me. Also, both clubs have pretty good wide receivers that will only flourish after the running game starts to take it’s toll.
As far as the cover is concerned, I am choosing to stay away from it. If I had to make that my play, of course I would be sticking with my theme for the last 20 plus years and bet the Longhorns as a dog. Either way, this should be a great game with lots of action to end a long day of college football. Sit back and enjoy a cold one and watch a great game on the Deuce. #moneytreesgrow
Trends
The Longhorns are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games.
The Longhorns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
The Over is 5-2 in the Longhorns last 7 non-conference games.
The Over is 7-3 in the Longhorns last 10 vs. Pac-12.
TheTrojans are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
The Trojans are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.
The Over is 4-0 in the Trojans last 4 games overall.
The Over is 4-1 in the Trojans last 5 non-conference games.
Join the Rainmaker and myself for our seventh edition of our College Football Throwdown on Thursday, September 14th. We will be covering all the upcoming action for Saturday’s games. We also will be giving our dog picks of the week. Last week, both EJ and I were a combined 4-0 in our outright dog win picks and are nailing the action over 60 percent of the time.
