Sun Belt foes will lock horns when the UT Arlington Mavericks (19-9) play the Texas State Bobcats (12-14) at College Park Center. Action starts at 8:15 pm ET on Tuesday, Mar. 1.
The Mavericks defeated Arkansas State 79-75 on Saturday. Kennedy Eubanks was a key piece with 13 points, five rebounds, and two steals. The Bobcats, meanwhile, are feeling some disappointment after their 73-68 loss to Little Rock on Saturday. Emani Gant had a solid game, accumulating his sixth double-double of the season with 20 points and 10 rebounds.
Gant has been on fire over the last five games for the Bobcats, averaging 20.0 points, 8.0 rebounds, 1.4 assists, and 0.6 blocks.
This game should be a showdown of contrasting styles. The Mavericks (ranked 17th in the nation in possessions per game) prefer a fast-paced style of play, while the Bobcats (338th) are methodical. Furthermore, the 265th-ranked offense of the Bobcats (offensive efficiency of 101.1) will face a tough test against the 15th-ranked defense of the Mavericks (defensive efficiency of 94.8).
This is the second game of the year between these two teams, with the Mavericks winning the first matchup 65-53. Jalen Jones was a top performer in the victory with 17 points, six rebounds, two assists, one steal, and one three-pointer.
The Mavericks have gone 19-9 Straight Up (SU) and 15-11 Against The Spread (ATS). UT Arlington has averaged 61.0 points per game over the last 10 games, lower than its season average of 79.5. The Mavericks have a distinct advantage on the boards in this matchup. They are the second-ranked rebounding team in Division I, averaging 43.7 per game, while the Bobcats rank 278th in the nation with 34.2 per game. Turning to the defensive side, teams routinely struggle to score points against the Mavericks, who allow only 63.4 points per home game. UT Arlington’s defense can be considered one of the best in the country. The Mavericks allow a .399 opponent field-goal percentage, one of the lowest shooting rates in the country.
Over on the other bench, the Bobcats head into the game with records of 10-10 ATS and 12-14 SU. Texas State has not performed well ATS during its last 10 games, earning a 3-7 record. During the last 10 games, they averaged 76.6 PPG, above their 65.6 PPG season average. The Bobcats average 64.3 points allowed per game, but have damaged those numbers in the past 10 games, allowing 74.7 points per game during that span.
The Mavericks’ win over Texas State in their last game brought their SU record to 9-1 over Texas State in their most recent games. Furthermore, UT Arlington leads the matchup ATS with a record of 7-1. UT Arlington topped the Bobcats in three key areas (field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers) twice over the last five matchups. Texas State has never had the edge in all three categories.
Predictions: SU Winner – Tx-Ar, ATS Winner – Tx-Ar
Notes
UT Arlington averages 79.5 points per game this season. Texas State is one of the best teams in points allowed, giving up just 64.3 points per game (ranked 22nd).
Texas State scores just 61.9 points per away game (ranked 246th). UT Arlington ranks 42nd in points allowed at home, giving up 63.4 points.
The UT Arlington Mavericks have a defensive rating of 94.8 (ranked 15th), while the Texas State Bobcats have an offensive rating of 101.1 (ranked 265th).
The UT Arlington Mavericks average a field goal percentage of 42.3% this season. The Texas State Bobcats have an underachieving record of 4-12 when opponents have a FG% of 42.3% or greater.
The UT Arlington Mavericks rank lower for their field goal percentage (263rd) than they do for their effective field goal percentage (228th), but the Texas State Bobcats have a better FG% ranking (272nd) than eFG% ranking (310th).
Ranked 21st in the nation, UT Arlington has an average of 16.8 assists per game. Texas State ranks lower at 314th with 11.3.
Ranked second in the nation, UT Arlington averages 43.7 rebounds per game. Texas State ranks lower at 278th with 34.2 RPG.
Texas State ranks 116th in offensive rebounds, while UT Arlington ranks at 16th in defensive rebounds.
Though Texas State is one of the best in the country in forcing turnovers with opponents averaging a TO% of 22.4% (ranked 12th), UT Arlington has a winning 5-2 record SU when it has a TO% of 22.4% or greater.
