The SBC’s third-leading passer, Tyler Jones (2,388 yards, 14 TDs), will be on display when the Texas State Bobcats play the Arkansas State Red Wolves. The Red Wolves are 8-3 while the Bobcats are 3-8. The game starts at 3:00 p.m. ET on Saturday, Dec 5 and will air on ESP3.
Arkansas State won easily over New Mexico State 52-28 last week. Tres Houston had an outstanding performance in the win, registering seven receptions for 155 yards and one TD. Fredi Knighten had a big game as well, totaling 367 yards and two TDs through the air. Texas State didn’t have the same success as Arkansas State, falling to Idaho 38-31. Tyler Siudzinski had a big game on the ground for the Bobcats, gaining 170 yards on 24 carries. Tyler Jones also had a big game with 312 yards and two TDs through the air.
The Red Wolves are a considerable 21-point favorite and the Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is 67 points.
Heading into Week 14 of the college football season, the Red Wolves are 8-3 Straight Up (SU) and 7-4 Against The Spread (ATS). In the past five games, Arkansas State is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS. Arkansas State has seen an increase in scoring in recent weeks compared to its 39.7 points per game average. Over the past five games, they’ve averaged 47 points per game. The Arkansas State run game is productive, currently ranking 20th in the nation with 226.1 rushing yards per game. As for the Arkansas State defense, there are important areas to keep an eye on. Arkansas State is opportunistic in its pass defense, allowing a completion percentage of only 52.2%. The Bobcats need to watch out for Arkansas State’s stingy defense. It averages the most turnovers in the nation with 2.8 per game. The Red Wolves make it hard on their opponents early, averaging 10 points in the first 15 minutes. On special teams, the Red Wolves have some playmakers. They average 148.4 return yards per game, the most in Division I.
Across the field, the Bobcats have a record of 3-8 for both ATS and SU. The Bobcats went 1-4 for both SU and ATS over the last five games. Arkansas State will be matching up against a stout Bobcats defense which has been playing better. They only allowed 30 PPG over their last five matchups, well below their season average of 37.7. The pass defense is a highlight of Texas State’s defense over those five weeks, only giving up 238.2 yards passing per opponent. If the Red Wolves aren’t careful with ball security against Texas State’s defense, they are going to be in some trouble. That defense has recovered the 22nd-most fumbles on the season with 0.9 per game. The Bobcats usually get a boost in the second quarter, when they average 11.4 points this year.
Predictions: SU Winner – Arkansas State, ATS Winner – Arkansas State, O/U – Under
Notes
Arkansas State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arkansas State’s last 5 games.
Arkansas State is 17-4 SU in its last 21 games at home.
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Arkansas State’s last 9 games at home.
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Texas State’s last 15 games on the road.
Texas State is 3-0 SU when leading at the start of the 4th quarter this season. Arkansas State is 6-0 SU when leading after three quarters.
Remarkably, Arkansas State is only 1-2 SU in games where it wins the turnover battle, yet undefeated (7-0 SU) when losing the turnover battle.
Among all FBS teams, the Arkansas State offensive passing game is ranked 77th nationally, while the Texas State pass defense is only ranked 115th. The Bobcats passing attack is ranked 58th, compared to the 96th-ranked pass defense of the Red Wolves.
