The Texas Tech Red Raiders head into Norman to play the ninth-ranked Oklahoma Sooners in a Big-12 Conference match-up that could produce a lot of points. The division game is set to begin on Saturday, October 28th at 8 p.m. EST. The intriguing contest between two good offenses will be available on the ABC and ESPN2 Networks for some evening college football action. Las Vegas has the Sooners as a -20 point favorite and the over/under is at a lofty 73.5 points.
The Texas Tech Red Raiders disappointed their home fans when they were beaten rather handily by the Iowa State Cyclones last weekend. The loss was the Red Raiders second straight and the third in their last four matches. They still sit above the .500 mark at 4-3 from their fast start to the year but it appears the wheels might be starting to fall off the bus.
The Oklahoma Sooners have won two straight games after being shocked at home by the Iowa State Cyclones. Still, they dropped another spot in the A.P. Poll after their 42-35 victory over Kansas State in the Little Apple. The Sooners still only have one blemish on their record and are in line to play in the Big-12 finale if they win out their schedule.
Last year, these two schools met up in Texas and a basketball game broke out. The Sooners ended up outscoring the Red Raiders 66-59 in a shoot-out that seen both offenses combine for over 1,700 yards and 125 points. The triumph was Oklahoma’s fifth straight win against Texas Tech.
Texas Tech Red Raiders (4-3)
Until a week ago, the Red Raiders have had no problem putting plenty of points up on the scoreboard. They scored 34 points in a loss to the Mountaineers. They also scored 35 on the Oklahoma Cowboys but lost again. Lastly, the high-octane passing attack laid 66 in a win over the lowly Kansas Jayhawks.
Head coach Kliff Kingsbury knows a little something about offense. When he was under center for Texas Tech, he passed his way to many Division I records that still stand today. His protege, quarterback Nic Shimonek, is thriving in his pass-first play-calling offense. In 2017, the senior has completed 70 percent of his throws for 2,341 yards with 18 touchdowns and five interceptions. In fact, his 2,341 yards through the air is the ninth best in the nation.
There is little doubt that the Red Raiders’ running game takes a back seat to their passing attack. Even so, three tailbacks have done pretty well considering the lack of reps out of the backfield. Together, the trio has combined for 1,020 yards and 13 scores. Justin Stockton leads all runners with 76 carries for just under 500 yards and four trips to the promised land. The back also is a weapon in their passing game. Stockton has 21 catches for 180 yards and another score.
Like opposing quarterback Baker Mayfield, Nic Shimonek spreads the ball around to a lot of different players. Basically, four receivers stand out above the rest. All totaled, they have reeled in 135 balls for well over 1,600 yards and 14 touchdowns. Keke Coutee is electric, leading this unit with 53 catches for 744 yards and six trips to pay-dirt.
Once again, the Texas Tech Red Raiders defense can’t hold up its end of the bargain. The offense does plenty of damage but the defense continually gives it all back. Heading into this Big-12 game, the secondary is ranked 127th in the country (297 ypg). Overall, they are giving up 30 points a contest which is 95th in the nation.
(9) Oklahoma Sooners (6-1)
The Oklahoma Sooners have appeared to gather themselves after that stunning defeat at home to the Cyclones. Maybe the wake-up call was just what the doctor ordered. Either way, they have reeled off two straight wins and have kept their playoff hopes alive. Thank goodness the offense is putting up astronomical numbers because their defense isn’t all that great.
Quarterback and Heisman candidate Baker Mayfield is one of the elite signal-callers in all of the Division I football. The experienced senior is having himself a year that most quarterbacks can only dream of. Coming into this home game, Mayfield has thrown for 2,347 yards with 19 touchdown tosses and only two picks. He is eighth in the league in passing yards and he leads the country’s second-ranked offense.
Unlike the Red Raiders offense, the Sooners will gauge their opponents via the ground attack. Three running backs pitch in to keep the offense balanced and put Baker Mayfield on third and shorts for most of the day. The threesome has combined for just over 160 carries for almost 1,100 yards and seven touchdowns. Mayfield also can run with the rock, scrambling for another 170 yards and three more scores.
There is plenty of talent at the wideout position for rookie head coach Lincoln Riley to find plays for. Five wide receivers all see a lot of action and all five produce about equally. As a group, the five have brought in 114 passes for almost 2,000 yards and 13 touchdowns. Mark Andrews leads this bunch with 30 catches and 520 yards.
Defensively, the Sooners are as about an average of a squad as it gets in college football. Their front seven sits 51st in the nation, allowing 146 yards a game. The back half is worse, giving up 227 yards through the air (76th). In all, the whole defense yields 25 points to opposing offenses which places them at 60th in the FBS. It’s safe to say that the secondary will be tested early and often in this match-up against the Red Raiders.
Prediction
The Texas Tech Red Raiders are reeling as of late and Norman is not the place you want to come into without any momentum. Oklahoma is tough to beat anywhere. They proved that when they went into the Horseshoe and defeated Ohio State. At home, they usually play even better. Yes, they were upset there earlier on but that doesn’t occur often. It’s not an understatement to say that Texas Tech has a tough task ahead of them this weekend.
That is exactly why the Sooners are a 20 point favorite. With that being said, Oklahoma has failed to cover their last four games including the upset to the Cyclones. That is because their defense keeps faltering as their offense keeps flourishing. Sound familiar? Texas Tech has the exact same affliction. Because of that alone, I’m not going near this 20 point spread.
Odds gurus have the over/under at 73.5. That may sound like a lot of points because honestly, it is. But that isn’t outrageous by any means. Remember, these two offenses went off on one another last season and have just the right formulas to do it again. Of course, I don’t expect another 125 points between the two schools but over 73.5 is reachable. Personally, I think the Sooners will be good for 45 at home. That means that the Red Raiders need to put up about 30 against a suspect secondary and I think they can. Play the over 73.5 on Saturday night and watch these two offenses move up and down the field at will. #moneytreesgrow @EriktheHun
Trends
The Red Raiders are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games.
The Red Raiders are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 conference games.
The Over is 4-1 in the Red Raiders last 5 road games.
The Sooners are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.
The Sooners are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
The Over is 4-1 in the Sooners last 5 games overall.
Over is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings.
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