The West Virginia Mountaineers are looking for a bounce-back performance when they host the Texas Tech Red Raiders at Milan Puskar Stadium on Saturday. The BIG-12 Conference match-up is scheduled to begin on Saturday, October 14th at 12:00 p.m. EST. The game can also be seen on the ESPNU network for your afternoon football entertainment. Oddsmakers have the Mountaineers as a -3 point favorite, which is down from -7 on Monday. They also have this contest’s total at 76 which is down four and a half points from where it came out on Monday.
The Texas Tech Red Raiders recovered from their touchdown loss at the hands of the Oklahoma State Cowboys by obliterating the lowly Kansas Jayhawks, 65-19 last week. In that game, the Red Raiders racked up over 600 of total offense. Surprisingly, they did it via their ground attack instead of their impressive passing barrage.
Mountaineers football suffered its first setback in three games last week when they were beaten by the seventh-ranked TCU Horned Frogs, 31-24. Now, West Virginia is 3-2 and their only losses have come on the road against ranked opponents. The Mountaineers fell in their opener to in-state rival Virginia Tech 24-31 in Blacksburg.
Last year in Lubbock, the West Virginia Mountaineers trounced the Red Raiders to the tune of 48-17. Sice 2012, the Mountaineers hold a slight three games to two lead over Texas Tech. Also, the match’s total has gone to the under in four of the last five games.
Texas Tech Red Raider (4-1)
The Texas Tech Red Raiders are known for having one of the nation’s most vaunted air attacks.That was simply not the case when they laid the wood to the Kansas Jayhawks last Saturday. In that game, the Red Raiders ran the ball more than they passed it and still put up over 600 yards of offense.
Tailbacks Justin Stockton and Desmond Nisby were exceptional, rushing for a combined 254 yards and five trips to pay-dirt. Stockton did the dirty work between the hashes, running for 161 yards on 15 carries with a score. Nisby also ran for 93 yards but was a monster in the red zone. The junior running back recorded himself four touchdowns on the day. If the Red Raiders can find this type of balance to their offense every week, they could easily sport one of the top five offenses in the country.
Let’s face it, Texas Tech is a throwing team even though that wasn’t the case on the road last week. Still, talented passer Nic Shimonek was sharp. The senior signal-caller completed 19 of his 24 throws for 233 yards with two touchdowns and a pick. Overall, the Red Raiders quarterback has been stellar in 2017. Coming into this game, Shimonek has just over 1,800 yards passing with 14 touchdowns and only three interceptions.
Four different wideouts do most of the heavy-lifting when it comes time to move the chains through their air attack. All four receivers have at least 15 catches totaling almost 1,500 yards and 12 scores. Keke Coutee easily leads this unit with 39 catches for almost 600 yards and five touchdowns. Running back Justin Stockton has also caught 17 passes for 164 yards and another score out of the backfield.
Defensively, the Red Raiders continue to struggle like they have over the past ten years. This season, they are allowing a gaudy 27.8 points per game and 437.4 yards per match. The secondary is especially bad, surrendering 300 yards (129th) to opposing schools offenses. Linebacker Jordyn Brooks leads the Texas Tech Red Raiders with 42 tackles, and corner Dakota Allen has two interceptions.
West Virginia Mountaineers (3-2)
The Mountaineers may be the best two-loss Division I football team in the country. Their two loss by a total of 14 points to the tough potents I mentioned above is a testament to that. In fact, some really suspect calls from the zebras in last week’s contest against TCU sealed their fate in that game. Either way, the West Virginia offense is still humming while their defense continues to struggle.
The West Virginia Mountaineers have won eight of their last nine home games. Quarterback Will Grier is doing his best to keep that impressive record going. He is completing 63 percent of his passes for 1,740 yards with 16 touchdowns to only and four interceptions. Furthermore, Grier has two or more touchdown passes in nine of his 11 career games.
This offense isn’t just about Will Grier and the passing game, the Mountaineers also move the pigskin successfully on the ground. Currently, West Virginia is ranked 29th in the country with 214 yards rushing per contest. Running back Justin Crawford is flat-out getting the job done. The sturdy back has 562 yards rushing on 80 carries (7.0 ypc) and six trips to the promised land.
Like Nic Shimonek, Will Grier also shares his distribution of the football. Three different receivers have caught at least 20 passes with two of them well over 30. Plus, three of the talented pass catchers have at least three touchdowns to their name. David Sills V stands out to me because he has racked up just over 500 yards with a team-high nine scores.
The Mountaineers defense is a lot like the Red Raiders. First, they’re horrible against the run allowing 214 yards per game (109th). Also, their secondary isn’t anything to brag about, yielding 227 yards a game which is good for 72nd in the nation. In the middle, Al-Rasheed Benton leads the West Virginia Mountaineers with 44 tackles. Teammate Kyzir White has pitched in with two interceptions.
Prediction
The last five times these two schools have squared-off, not once were their combined scores even close to 80. Well, that’s where Las Vegas opened this total up at. Now, the betting public has pushed this down and it’s starting to look pretty damn good. All the stats point to this being a shoot-out.
West Virginia struggles on defense, the Red Raiders struggle on defense. Nic Shimonek has been lights out and so has Will Grier. It’s history versus the here and now for me with this pick. I’m taking the here and now. Take the over 76 and hope that both offenses have their way with the opposing defenses this weekend.
As for the spread, line setters have the Mountaineers as a -3 point favorite. Obviously, it’s because they are at home and Mountaineer Field is no easy place to play. Both of these teams have good losses to the credit. Both fell to ranked teams that will more than likely be playing in major bowl games to finish off their seasons.
A lot of times in these would-be high scoring affairs, it can be really difficult to predict a line as tight as three. For that reason and the others, I just mentioned, I’m suggesting staying away from this line. I do think the Mountaineers find a way to get it done at home, but I’m not betting on it. #moneytreesgrow
Trends
The Red Raiders are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
The Red Raiders are 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 games overall.
The Over is 6-2 in the Red Raiders last 8 road games.
The Mountaineers are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games in October.
The Mountaineers are 5-14 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
The Over is 4-1 in the Mountaineers last 5 home games.
The Red Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
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