For the last decade or so the AFC East has been easy to predict. You pick the New England Patriots to win, then decide exactly how poorly the other three teams are going to do. Usually if you stuck all three at .500 or lower you were good.
The New York Jets managed to not only make the playoffs a couple of times in that stretch when Rex Ryan was the coach, but also made two AFC Championships but since Mark Sanchez was their quarterback then, you probably don’t need a refresher on how that worked out.
What’s different about this year? A lot, actually. First off, you have Tom Brady missing the first four games with a suspension (hopefully), then you have improved teams all across the board. This isn’t going to be the same tissue-paper division the Patriots have walked through in years past.
So how do I think it’s going to go down? Join me, won’t you?
Buffalo Bills
2015 Projection: 12-4
2014 Record: 9-7 (missed playoffs)
Rex Ryan comes into Buffalo bringing excitement, an attacking defense and the knowledge of how to do one thing consistently; beat the New England Patriots. In fact, Ryan has managed to beat the Pats at least once every year, either as a head coach of the Jets or as a defensive coordinator of the Baltimore Ravens.
Everyone expects Ryan’s defense to be good, but the Bills will actually bring an offense to their games this year and offensive coordinator Greg Roman, no longer hampered by Colin Kaepernick’s ineptitude, has unleashed an explosive, point-scoring attack that will only improve with LeSean McCoy and Sammy Watkins at full strength.
New England Patriots
2015 Projection: 10-6
2014 Record: 12-4 (Super Bowl Champion)
There is a thought here that the Patriots are due for a big crash this season. Losing Brady for any amount of time, along with the bad karma and the inability to cheat could be costly to a team so dependent on breaking the rules to succeed. But I’ve seen this movie before.
While I don’t believe for a second the Patriots will ever contend for a Super Bowl again, they’ll not go gently into that good night either. Ultimately, Brady’s suspension won’t make much difference in this projection. I’d pick them to begin the season 1-3 even with him at quarterback. Now, if Rob Gronkowski goes down the all bets are off.
New York Jets
2015: Projection: 6-10
2014 Record: 4-12 (missed playoffs)
Todd Bowles was a great hire, but the best thing the Jets did to improve their team this offseason was firing general manager John Idzik. With Mike Maccagnan and new head coach Todd Bowles together, the Jets have already put together a decent NFL roster where one wasn’t before. Not only that, they aced the draft and, with Geno Smith out for a month, could pick up some legitimate wins along the way.
This division, and the entire AFC, is far too competitive for the Jets to pull even this year, but they’ll be better. And they’ll win some games they shouldn’t.
Miami Dolphins
2015 Projection: 5-11
2014 Record: 8-8 (missed the playoffs)
If you read my Five Bold Predictions article (and if you didn’t, go ahead. I’ll wait here.), you know that not only do I disagree with the Harvard study that predicted the Miami Dolphins would win the Super Bowl, I said they would not even make the playoffs and that head coach Joe Philbin would be the first coach fired. I still think that an entire day later.
Philbin has never had control of this team and it’s got too talented a roster, especially now with the addition of Ndamukong Suh to the defensive front, to perform as badly as it has. Philbin should have been fired after the whole Richie Incognito – Jonathan Martin bullying fiasco, but owner Stephen M. Ross gave him another season and got an 8-8 for his trouble. At the end of this season Philbin will wish he did that well.
