We woke up in a vastly different NFL world this morning. Last night, while Donald Trump was delivering the State of the Tremendous Yuge Union and before Joe Kennedy slobbered his way through his rebuttal like a bull mastiff, news broke that the Kansas City Chiefs had shipped Alex Smith to the Washington Redskins in exchange for a third round pick and the services of cornerback Kendall Fuller.
Smith will join the Redskins officially when the new league year begins and get a four-year contract extension for his trouble worth $94 million with $71 million in guaranteed money. Smith is 33 years old and, barring anything crazy happening, this will be his last NFL contract. Not bad for him.
When I talk about a “Butterfly Effect,” I don’t mean the Ashton Kutcher time travel movie and its many direct to DVD sequels. No, I’m talking about the actual theory in which a “minute localized change in a complex system can have large effects elsewhere.” The example people use is when a butterfly flaps its wings on one side of the world, it’s disturbance of the air can alter the weather on the other side.
So here are some of the butterflies affected by this one trade
ALEX SMITH and the WASHINGTON REDSKINS
This one’s obvious, but it’s where we must start. The Redskins replace one franchise quarterback in the prime of his career with another that’s wrapping his up. Frankly, for head coach Jay Gruden this is probably a push and, in the short term, is an upgrade. Smith has accomplished much more in wins and losses over the last few seasons than Cousins has in his career. He also comes in at a slightly cheaper price, making around $23 million a season instead of the $26 plus Cousins will pocket on his next deal. Gruden and Washington management had all but salted the earth on Cousins since the season ended, so this divorce was in the works. By adding Smith, they’ve done no damage to the franchise, though they’ll still need to look for a “quarterback of the future.”
QB Alex Smith and Washington now have reached an agreement on a new four-year contract extension, per sources. Smith, who had one year left on his contact, tied to Washington for next five seasons. Smith gets long-term deal from Washington that Cousins could not.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) January 31, 2018
For Smith, there’ll be no looking over his shoulder this season. He’s the guy and the Redskins have invested the money to keep him comfortable for good. While Gruden lacks a lot as a head coach, he’s a decent enough offensive mind. Washington can now focus on adding weapons to fit Smith’s strengths. Of course, Andy Reid is a good offensive mind too, but the Chiefs have gone as far as they can go with Smith and Reid together. This move is best for all involved.
PATRICK MAHOMES and the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
The Chiefs must really like what they’ve seen in Mahomes, because they’re all in now. The smart money is on a .500 season and a learning curve for the former Texas Tech star in his second year, especially with Jon Gruden taking over the Oakland Raiders and some Denver Broncos possibilities we’ll talk about in a minute.
Mahomes started the final game for the Chiefs this previous season, leading them to a 27-24 win over the Broncos. He was 22-of-35 for 284 yards, no touchdowns and an interception. Kansas City traded up, using their 2018 first round pick as collateral, to pick Mahomes last April in the first round of the NFL Draft.
As expected, Patrick Mahomes has officially been handed the keys to the franchise. pic.twitter.com/vRiRW8DLYk
— LeadingNFL (@LeadingNFL) January 31, 2018
Moving on from Smith opens up $17 million in new salary cap space for the Chiefs that Reid can use to build a roster around Mahomes. Reid has had great success developing and getting the most out of quarterbacks. Nick Foles belonged to him, as did a rejuvenated Michael Vick, anything good Donovan McNabb did and, most egregiously, he fooled other teams into thinking Kevin Kolb was an NFL starter. Mahomes is in good hands.
KIRK COUSINS
Cousins was going to cost at least $26 million a year and probably $75-80 million guaranteed to keep in Washington and likely would have been the highest paid quarterback in the league. Now, as a street free agent, he’ll get at least that. Depending on who gets into the bidding, and there are plenty of teams that could, no one really knows what Cousins will eventually sign for. It could be $26 million. It could be $30 million. Until free agency starts, we have no clue. Regardless, Cousins’ deal will reset the market and make him an incredibly rich man. But whatever deal he lands will cause plenty of problems for other teams like the…
Von Miller thinks Kirk Cousins could take the Broncos to the next level. pic.twitter.com/mFNOPBQV64
— ESPN (@espn) January 31, 2018
GREEN BAY PACKERS and ATLANTA FALCONS
Matt Ryan is entering the final year of his current contract and will make $19.25 million this year. He’s about to get a raise. Now, before the possibility that Cousins would be a free agent, there might have been hope in the Falcons’ front office that they could lock in Ryan with a five-year, $26-27 million a year contract. Now, they have to be sweating bullets.
Unlike Cousins, who’s only played in one postseason game and put up stats, Ryan has played in a Super Bowl, multiple playoff games and was the 2016 NFL MVP. Whatever Cousins gets, which again will be the richest QB contract in NFL history, Ryan will blow by it. The Smith trade alone will cost Atlanta $2-3 million more a year on Ryan’s contract.
One #Falcons related note on the Alex Smith/Kirk Cousins deal:
Thomas Dimitroff better get that Matt Ryan extension done ASAP. Certainly before Aaron Rodgers gets his and definitely before Kirk Cousins signs his. Ryan gonna break the bank!— Mark Zinno (@MarkZinno) January 31, 2018
Rodgers’ current deal is up in 2019, where he’ll make $20 million. Whatever Ryan gets on his deal, which will be predicated on what Cousins gets from his eventual suitor, Rodgers will then leap over that. He could be the first $30 million a year NFL player and he’s worth every penny. Again, if Cousins stays in Washington at $26 million, there’s a chance the Packers can lock in Rodgers at $28 million. They can forget that.
If Alex Smith gets $71M guaranteed from Washington, WHAT IN GOD'S NAME SHOULD AARON RODGERS BE PAID? https://t.co/dbUqvcgygg
— Jason Wilde (@jasonjwilde) January 31, 2018
ROOKIE QUARTERBACKS
Some team, be it the Cleveland Browns, New York Jets, Buffalo Bills, Denver Broncos, Cincinnati Bengals, Arizona Cardinals, Jacksonville Jaguars or Minnesota Vikings, are about to see their draft board completely change. One of these teams is walking away with Cousins and taking all the rookie quarterbacks off their boards. That means a guy that shouldn’t drop in this draft will. That also means that skill players that could have been around later, won’t be.
If the Browns sign Cousins, and they’re the literal odds-on favorites to do so, then they could conceivably trade out of the first pick to a team enamored with Josh Rosen or Sam Darnold. Or, they could sit there and take Saquon Barkley, reshuffling the entire draft from that point on. God knows what trades we’d see after that.
To make a wager on any sport, go to the world famous Diamond Sportsbook by clicking here.
