Our biggest potential mismatch of the divisional round weekend gets burned off Saturday night when the New England Patriots (14-2) host the Houston Texans (9-7) at Foxboro.
This line has moved all a half-point down since Monday’s astronomical -16. And that was after the game opened at -14.5, so, needless to say, no one has a lot of faith in the Houston Texans to even stay in the building.
What do I think will happen? Let’s get pumped up and I’ll tell you.
The Game: Houston at New England (-15.5, 44.5 O/U)
How the Texans Got Here
The Texans played a pretty solid game against an Oakland Raiders team that was just going through the motions and looking to end it all a week ago. Brock Osweiler had one of his strongest games of his Houston tenure, completed 14-of-25 passes for 168 yards and a touchdown. While those numbers may seem pedestrian, the pathetic Raiders with their hearts cut out from quarterback Derek Carr’s injury, didn’t demand much more than that. With the lead, all Osweiler really had to do was not turn the ball over.
He’ll have to do a hell of a lot more than that to beat the Patriots Saturday.
CB @AJBOUYE21 set @HoustonTexans postseason single-game record w/ 4 passes defensed vs OAK. #Texans set team playoff record w/ 13 PDs total: pic.twitter.com/RFBOpiRUVs
— Houston Texans PR (@TexansPR) January 11, 2017
But here’s the thing. Osweiler has it in him to do it. Last year he faced off with Tom Brady and the Patriots and led the Denver Broncos to a 30-24 win in overtime. Osweiler threw for 270 yards, a touchdown and a pick in that game.
His supporting cast in Houston is different, of course, and that game was also at home in Mile High Stadium. But DeAndre Hopkins should be open in the Patriots secondary all day and Lamar Miller is a better running back than C.J. Anderson, who ran all over New England last season. O’Brien should be watching that game film on a loop this week prepping for Saturday.
The Texans have a legit defense, but they seem to leave it at home. They’re not nearly as good on the road, but that shouldn’t stop Jadeveon Clowney and Whitney Mercilus from riding Brady to the ground a few times Saturday night.
How the Patriots Got Here
All the Pats did was win seven straight games pretty emphatically to secure the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs over the last two months of the season. Their last loss was at home, 31-24, to the Seattle Seahawks. Before that it was a 16-0 loss to the Buffalo Bills with a one-handed Jacoby Brissett at quarterback.
Things are different now.
Tom Brady wins AFC Offensive Player of the Year NFL 101 Award for second straight year & fifth time in his career: https://t.co/glZfzRUlyB pic.twitter.com/0Tca7Z0InT
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) January 11, 2017
Tom Brady has been playing at an MVP level since he returned from his DeflateGate suspension. And while I’ve never been a big believer in his “revenge seasons,” Brady is at the top of his game.
The fact is, the last time these two teams met up the Texans were completely dominated with Brady at home on his couch and back up Jimmy Garapolo in the hospital. New England, with Brissett making his first NFL start, beat the Texans 27-0. It was a shutout and Bill O’Brien was so thoroughly outcoached he should have been fired on the spot.
The X-Factors
It’s as simple as how much pressure Clowney, Mercilus and the rest of the Texans’ defense can put on Brady. Brady has some of the best pocket awareness in the league, but he melts when a team can put pressure in his face. Not so much on the outside, but guys aiming right for his chin. Clowney and Mercilus will need to come at him head on through stunts and shifts.
The Pick
I would love nothing more than to see Clowney and Mercillus put a baby in Tom Brady by the end of this game, but I’ll believe it when I see it. If Osweiler is loose with the ball, this one could get ugly quick. As big as the spread is, it’s probably safe. Patriots 30, Texans 13
Last Week
Straight up: 3-1
Against the spread: 3-1
Season
Straight up: 160-98-2
Against the spread: 131-129
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