With The Ultimate Fighter 22 finally in the books, we have ourselves an epic plate of appetizers before UFC 194, the main dish. At the top, we have a number one contender bout for the featherweight strap; proceded by a barnburner in the lightweight division; and, last but not least, The Ultimate Fighter Season 22 showdown. Here is what you can expect to see Friday night leading up to the main event clash between Frankie Edgar and Chad Mendes.
Tony Ferguson (-166) vs. Edson Barboza (+141)
Everyone has their one fight that they believe is being overlooked courtesy of this stacked MMA marathon, and for me it’s this fight between Ferguson and Barboza. When you look at Tony Ferguson, you see a guy riding an incredible wave of momentum fueled by spectacular performances and insurmountable self-belief. He may not have the most appealing personality as some are turned away by his apparent arrogance, but Ferguson is a legitimate threat in this stacked 155 lb weight class. He’s unorthodox, he’s well-rounded, and the streak he is on is undeniable. Whether this will be enough to take him to the top is the real question – standing in his way is one of the most devastating strikers to ever grace the Octagon in Edson Barboza.
While he may not be the title challenger many believed him to be, Barboza is still improving and fine-tuning his defensive techniques. On the offensive side of things, Barboza is among the best when it comes to speed, power, timing, and technique. No one throws kicks better than Barboza, and his hands are pretty solid too. With an improved gas tank, footwork, and striking defense, Edson Barboza has the potential to not just shut down the surging talent in Tony Ferguson, but also make a stake for the UFC’s lightweight championship in the near future.
When it comes to Tony Ferguson, a lot of his weapons don’t seem as effective as they really are. I like to describe Ferguson as a “sneaky” fighter; he hits guys with attacks that they don’t see coming thus increasing their effectiveness. Ferguson’s step-in elbow for instance is an attack that Josh Thomson didn’t see coming. Ferguson is able to time opponents coming in, and he never responds the way that most other fighters do. Ferguson has supreme confidence in his wrestling as well, so he can take risks on the feet and the ground since he knows he can get out of any position you put him in. Ferguson has a knack for finding the neck of opponents, and has a broad arsenal of chokes which he can snag at awkward angles. All in all, Ferguson is an awkward, unorthodox fighter who has some of the most potent tools in this surging lightweight division.
Speaking of tools – Edson Barboza has some of the best. His leg kicks are unquestionably one of the strongest leg kicks in the game as he has cripped not one, but two of his opponents inside the UFC. Beyond that, Barboza has accurate, extensive boxing combinations that he uses to disguise his kicks. He’s good moving forward, but can also play matador and cut angles on the backfoot (displayed in the Michael Johnson bout). In the grappling department, Barboza’s athleticism and explosive legs make him difficult to hold down. While Barboza doesn’t seem to seek out of the ground game, he has more than enough defensive tactics to get himself out of trouble. The big Achilles Heel of Barboza has always been his striking defense and, moreover, his chin. The jab that Donald Cerrone caught him with didn’t seem to really have much pop behind it, but it caught Barboza off guard and thus furthered the effect that it had. Unfortunately for Barboza, Ferguson’s entire striking arsenal is full of sneaky techniques designed to catch you when you’re not expecting it.
I think this fight has the potential to be a back-and-forth war between a technical, by-the-book Muay Thai striker in Edson Barboza and an unorthodox, outside-the-box grappler in Tony Ferguson. I believe Barboza will get the better of Ferguson in the early going – he’ll batter the leg, smash kicks to the body and arms, and even get off with his striking while avoiding the tie-up, but eventually Ferguson will find his way in. When he does, look for Ferguson to catch Barboza with something he isn’t expecting, and choke out the stunned Brazilian in the second round. It will be a typical Edson Barboza contest – he’ll look great early on, but get caught with something unexpected which will lead to the finish.
Prediction: Tony Ferguson via 2nd Rd Submission
The Ultimate Fighter 22 Finale:
Originally scheduled to be Artem Lobov vs. Saul Rogers, some visa issues have left Rogers unable to compete – Ryan Hall, who previously lost to Rogers via decision, is stepping up to take his place. Hall is one of the very best Brazilian jiu-jitsu talents to ever stumble upon The Ultimate Fighter, and most importantly – he knows this. He is very confident in his grappling and is willing to do whatever necessary to get the fight on the ground. While his standup is very much his weakness, Hall actually throws with some solid technique – just doesn’t have much power behind it. Another crutch of Hall’s is his inability to force fights to the ground; against the larger athlete in Saul Rogers, Hall was left desperately trying to pull guard. Lobov on the other hand is a very unorthodox brawler who throws from the hip. Very physically strong and durable, Lobov is willing to jump into the fire if that means getting his hands on his opponent. He may not be the most accurate, but Lobov only needs to land a glancing blow for the effects to be massive.
Because Lobov is a short stocky guy with solid wrestling skills as well, I expect Lobov to be able to stuff Hall’s desperate attempts to make it a grappling contest. Expect Lobov to pressure Hall on the feet, pick his shots, and patiently land his powerful haymakers. Lobov needs to be careful once he catches Hall (and he will) because Hall is very dangerous off his back and could very well play possom in order to wrap up a leg. Lobov, despite a wild, reckless style, is a very intelligent fighter who knows what he’s good at. I’m picking him to TKO Ryan Hall late in the fight after he batters him on the feet, avoids desperate submission attempts, and nullifies Hall’s game completely.
Prediction: Artem Lobov via 3rd Rd TKO
Other Picks:
Ryan LaFlare (-210) def. Mike Pierce (+180) via Split Decision
Gabriel Gonzaga (-110) def. Konstantin Erokhin (EV) via 1st Rd Submission
Joe Lauzon (+160) def. Evan Dunham (-190) via 3rd Rd Submission
Tatsuya Kawajiri (-250) def. Jason Knight (+210) via Unanimous Decision.
Joby Sanchez (-110) def. Geane Herrera (-110) via Unanimous Decision.
