After weeks of abysmal match-ups on Thursday Night Football, the NFL has actually stumbled into a good one tonight when the New Orleans Saints (4-5) travel northeast to face the Carolina Panthers (3-6). The Panthers are in full Super Bowl hangover mode fighting to stay relevant in a league that’s blowing by them. The Saints are just battling to make the playoffs and stay off HBO’s Hard Knocks next season.
The Game: New Orleans at Carolina (-3.5)
The History
The Panthers and Saints have been in the same division since Carolina entered the league back in 1995. Inexplicably the Saints and Panthers were both in the NFC West in those days, along with the Atlanta Falcons. When the NFL moved to four divisions in each conference in 2002, all three teams went to a more logical geographical location in the NFC South. No, it still doesn’t make any sense that the Dallas Cowboys are in still the NFC East, but we’re not going to worry about that today.
The Panthers currently lead the series 23-20 and have won three of the last four games. The Saints won the last match-up, 41-38 a month ago.
The series has been as even as the overall records. The longest Saints win streak is five games from Oct. 2000 to Nov. 2002. The Panthers have two four-game win streaks from Dec. 2002 to Dec. 2004 and Dec. 2005 to Oct. 2007.
The Saints on Offense
The New Orleans offense begins and ends with Drew Brees who is in the latter stages of a sure Hall of Fame career. In his 16th season he’s on pace to throw over 40 touchdowns, for the third time, and hit the 5,000 yard mark too, for the fifth time. He’s one of the best to ever throw a football and he makes all the players around him better. That being said, Brees does have some solid weapons with the Saints this season. Coby Fleener was a nice addition at tight end. Willie Snead, who the saints signed as an undrafted free agent, nearly had 1,000 yards last season. He’ll hit that mark this year as will Brandin Cooks, who hauled in 1,138 yards of passes in 2015. Rookie Michael Thomas out of Ohio State was an outright steal in the second round and could very well be a third wideout over 1,000 yards for the Saints this season. He’s already caught 51 passes for 613 yards and five touchdowns and the only reason he’s not in the rookie of the year conversation is a member of the Dallas Cowboys’ backfield has already sewn that up.
The Panthers on Offense
This unit should be better than last year, but this has been an under-performing unit across the board. Carolina was the top offense in the league in 2015. This year they’re ranked No. 13, whichi isn’t a disaster, but it’s also led to six losses. The biggest issue for the Panthers is turnovers and quarterback Cam Newton is as guilty as anyone on the roster. Carolina is No. 29 in the league at a -7 turnover differential. Still, this is a team with plenty of weapons, including the most productive tight end in the league. But, like the Saints, it all begins and ends with the quarterback and the Panthers will only go as far as Newton takes them.
The Saints on Defense
New Orleans is still near the bottom of the league in total defense, but being “near” the bottom is still a vast improvement over last season. The Saints added some decent players in free agency like Nick Fairly and James Laurinaitis, but this is still a unit that needs the offense to score 30 points a game to win.
The Panthers on Defense
Again, the Panthers haven’t taken a free fall from one of the best defenses in the league, they’ve just hit the middle of the packed, ranked No. 13 in the NFL here too. They’re working with more talent than the Saints too, with Luke Kuechly at middle linebacker, the best player at his position in the league. Kony Ealy and Charles Johnson are both solid pass rushers up front. The secondary remains a work in progress.
The Coaches
These teams boast two of the best in the league. Sean Payton and Ron Rivera have both guided their teams to Super Bowl appearances, with Payton winning his in 2008. Rivera’s team does better when he throws caution to the wind, earning him the nickname “Riverboat Ron,” The Saints will probably get a dose of him tonight. Advantage Payton, but not by much.
The Pick
The Panthers have had their backs to the wall for weeks and have yet to respond. I think this is a lost season for them. New Orleans is still playing for something and it shows up on the field tonight. Saints 30, Panthers 28
Last Week
Straight up: 7-7
Against the spread: 8-6
Season
Straight up: 84-64-2
Against the spread: 75-71
