We open the 2017-18 with the defending Super Bowl 51 Champion New England Patriots hosting the Kansas City Chiefs on Thursday Night Football. The game will be simulcast on NBC and the NFL Network beginning at 8:30 p.m. and I would normally be live blogging the game, but the live blog service is down all night for maintenance. So I’ll see you Sunday afternoon.
The Game: Kansas City at New England (-9)
The History
The Chiefs lead the all-time series 17-14-3
The two teams met in the playoffs last season with New England winning 27-20.
The last Chiefs win was in 2014 when they blew out the Patriots 34-3.
From October 1965 to September 1970, the Patriots could not beat the Chiefs in nine straight tries. Kansas city won seven games and two ended in ties.
The longest New England streak is three straight wins over the Chiefs from December 2000 to November 2004.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
A few years ago it looked like the Chiefs were the team that would end New England’s reign for good. That 2014 game had Patriots fans ready to hang up their tickets to the bandwagon, illegal film room and deflated bouncy house for good. Of all the teams New England has dominated in its two decade stretch of success, the Chiefs haven’t been one of them. The Patriots are 5-2 against Kansas City since Brady and Belichick joined forced and three of those five victories were by a touchdown or less.
Last season the Chiefs boasted the No. 13 scoring offense and Alex Smith completed 67.1 percent of his passes for 3,502 yards, 15 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He’ll be without his starting running back, Spencer Ware, and best wide receiver in Jeremy Maclin this season. Instead, he’ll have to distribute the ball to the likes of Chris Conley and Tyreek Hill. Rookie Kareem Hunt takes over in the Kansas City backfield after an impressive preseason. Travis Kelce remains one of the most dangerous weapons in the game.
If the Chiefs have a chance in this game, it’ll more likely be because of their defense. Safety Eric Berry is one of the few players that can play Rob Gronkowski to a stalemate and Marcus Peters is dying to pick off Tom Brady in a prime time game. The Chiefs also come with a relentless pass rush in the form of Justin Houston, Dee Ford and Tamba Hali.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Before we crown this New England “super team” and it’s upcoming 19-0 season, it’s important to look at a simple fact that could loom large, not just in this game, but for the entire rest of the season. The prevailing idea is that that the loss of Brady’s top receiver, Julian Edelman, will have no affect on the team’s performance. Let me disprove that… with SCIENCE!
Since 2014, Brady posts a 106.9 passer rating in games which Edelman suits up and plays. In games without Edelman? His rating is 86.4. That’s 3.1 points below league average or pretty much Ryan Fitzpatrick-esque. You want to pretend losing Edelman isn’t going to be a big deal this season, you go right ahead.
The Patriots have brought in plenty of wide receivers, mostly speedsters and big play guys like Brandin Cooks and Phillip Dorsett. They also lost LeGarrette Blount to free agency and all that cat did last season was score 18 touchdowns. New England was the No. 3 ranked offense in points scored last season. Don’t expect those same kind of numbers this year.
On defense, the same crew comes back that was the top rated unit in points allowed and No. 8 in yards allowed. Belichick has spent what little draft capital he kept on depth and, barring injury, there’s no reason to expect a drop off here.
The Pick
The Chiefs picked the wrong season to decimate their wide receiving corps. The damage done will show up in this game, with Conley and Hill simply overmatched by Stephon Gilmore and Malcolm Butler. I think Brady is in for a down year and already predicted he’d retire after the season. That won’t matter in this game. New England rarely loses at Foxboro and won’t tonight. I think the spread is probably too high, but still like the Pats to come out on top. Patriots 23, Chiefs 17
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