Week Five opens up with what looks, on paper, to be a great game. The swooning New England Patriots (2-2) travel to Raymond James Stadium to take on the Hard Knocks starring Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) on Thursday Night Football.
The game will be broadcast for your enjoyment on your local CBS station and the NFL Network at 8:25 p.m.
The Game: New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5.5)
O/U: 55.5
The History
You want history? Well, you don’t get any. The Patriots and Buccaneers have played eight times total since 1976. New England leads the all time series 6-3.
The last time the Bucs beat the Patriots was on September 3, 2000 at Foxborough. Tampa Bay Bucs, led by Shaun King, beat New England, led by Drew Bledsoe, 21-16.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (2-2)
Can the Patriots fix their defense on a short week? Considering they’ve had full weeks and even an extra couple of days after their opening game loss on Thursday night, it doesn’t seem likely. Last week New England game up four touchdowns to Cam Newton, three through the air and one on the ground. They were better against the run, but considering Newton threw for 316 yards and Kelvin Benjamin had 104 yards receiving, the weakness to the pass remains.
The good news for the Patriots is they come into this game relatively healthy. Tight end Rob Gronkowski was nowhere on the injury report this week, which is a rarity. Nickle back Eric Rowe still won’t play, but everybody else should suit up on the defense. What good that does is anyone’s guess.
This offense is all about Tom Brady and what he can do. Luckily for New England, he’s been on a tear since shitting the bead in the opener against Kansas City. He’s on pace for 5,596 yards, 40 touchdowns and no interceptions. Can he keep that up? At 40? Nope, I don’t care how good he is.
That being said, there will be plenty of opportunities to make plays against the Buccaneers defense. The Patriots receiving corps is as healthy as it’s been all season and there’s nobody on Tampa’s roster that can cover Gronk with Kwon Alexander and Lavonte David both probably out.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (2-1)
Yep, Alexander and David look like they’re both AWOL again this week on a defensive unit that just has to have them in this game. Keith Tandy hasn’t practiced all week either, but T.J. Ward has. If he can play, that could change the Gronk match up considerably since he’s handled him for years with the Denver Broncos.
Quarterback Jameis Winston bounced back from a disaster in Minnesota to deliver a near perfect game against the Giants last week. He finished 22 of 38 for 332 yards and three touchdowns. More importantly, he threw no interceptions.
While Alexander and David are missing from the defense, the Buccaneers will get one of their most important offensive weapons back Thursday night when Doug Martin takes the field for the first time. Martin looked ready to unreel a 1,500 yard season during August and, if he’s ready to go, should get the bulk of the carries against the Patriots. He could be the difference in the game.
Last week the Buccaneers defense produced absolutely zero sacks against the Giants. Considering Brady’s quick release and comparable talent in front of him, it’s hard to see this unit producing a lot of pressure. Gerald McCoy could always go off script and take this one over, but you have to think Josh McDaniels and Bill Belichick have something in the quiver in case that happens.
The Pick
I would love nothing more than to pick the upset here and, frankly, I’ve tried to talk myself into it all week. I just don’t see it happening, not with Alexander and David both out again. This could be a big game for Gronk and for Martin and could easily come down to the last team with the ball. The Patriots don’t lose two games in a row, but a lot of things the “Patriots don’t do” have happened this season. I’m picking New England, but I’m hedging with the spread. Patriots 35, Buccaneers 31
Last week
Straight up: 9-7
Against the spread: 10-6
Season
Straight up: 37-26
Against the spread: 32-31
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