After a couple of blowouts on the TNT doubleheader last week, highlighted by a hideous performance by the New York Knicks, it looks like we’ll actually some good games on the national broadcast this week. The Knicks still play this week but thankfully, they’re on NBATV. The rest of us will watch the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Houston Rockets, in what could very well wind up being a playoff series preview, and the Cleveland Cavaliers and Los Angeles Lakers, in what is a surprisingly even matchup.
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Houston Rockets
Odds: Rockets -1.5
The Oklahoma City Thunder could be preparing to make a run. The Thunder are only 6-6 in their last 12 games but in that stretch of 10 games, the team has won at San Antonio while also beating the Phoenix Suns and Washington Wizards, two other teams currently in playoff positions. The Thunder haven’t figured out all their problems but their main limitation has been the health of their two superstars, Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant. Westbrook has managed to remain injury-free the past month but when Durant re-aggravated an injury in December, the Thunder were interrupted for the second time this season. Now that Durant is getting himself back into shape for a second time, Oklahoma City might have more continuity. The Thunder allow only 98 points per game, so they could keep this game close.
However, Houston isn’t just preparing to make a run: the Rockets are actually making a run right now. They’ve won five out of seven overall. Houston is actually 1.1 points better than OKC on defense, allowing only 96.9 points per game. The Rockets are three points better than the Thunder on offense, averaging 101.8 points per game, compared to Oklahoma City’s 98.8 average. Oklahoma City does struggle on the road, going 7-12 so far this season. Houston is a decent 13-6 at home.
The difference here, though is likely to be rest. The Thunder have been off since Friday while the Rockets played last night and lost in Orlando. That makes this a back-to-back situation for them and also their third game in four nights, in a third different city. Look for the Thunder to make a statement here and win outright as a small road dog.
Pick: Thunder +2
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Los Angeles Lakers
Odds: Cavaliers -6
This is a game in which there will be plenty of doubts about the Cavs’ ability to take care of business. It is true that Cleveland is a mess right now. They’ve lost six straight games and are 1-9 in their last 10 games. Even without LeBron James for most of these games, Cleveland should not be losing against mediocre teams. There is too much talent on the non-LeBron part of the roster – especially Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving alongside Tristan Thompson and the newly acquired J.R. Smith and Timofey Mozgov.
However, Cleveland did not win some easy games over the past few weeks and coach David Blatt is struggling to keep this team together. Cleveland averages under 100 points per game and allows 100.1 per game, which boils down to a negative point differential. The Cavaliers are an uninspiring 8-11 on the road, too and there’s a whole bunch of trends that suggest to bet against them in this spot. They’re 2-10 ATS after giving up 105 points or more, they’re 4-15 ATS against teams that score 99 or points per game and they’re 3-11 ATS in non-conference games. What’s there to like about this team on Thursday?
Simply, the fact that Cleveland is playing a far worse team, the Lakers.
Los Angeles has a negative point differential of nearly six points. The Lakers score reasonably well at just over 100 points per game, but their defense still allows over 106 points. Los Angeles is a terrible 6-14 at home. The Cavs have not been good in their last 10, but they lacked LeBron for most of those games. The Lakers have dropped 11 of 15 and are just plain weak this season. Neither team inspires confidence, but Cleveland with LeBron should be able to get its act together and win.
Pick: Cavaliers -6
