This has the makings of a shootout as the Toledo Rockets (8-1) take on the Bowling Green Falcons (8-2). The country’s second-leading passer, Matt Johnson (3,955 yards, 36 TDs), and second-leading receiver, Roger Lewis (1,310 yards, 14 TDs), will be on display in this contest. It kicks off Tuesday, Nov 17 at 6:00 p.m. ET and will be shown on ESP2.
Bowling Green beat Western Michigan 41-27 last week. Travis Greene had a big game running the ball in the victory, rushing for 170 yards and three TDs on 24 carries. Roger Lewis had a great game as well, adding 86 receiving yards and two TDs on five catches. Toledo also got the win in last week’s performance, beating Central Michigan 28-23. Kareem Hunt had an outstanding performance on the ground for the Rockets, totaling 113 yards and two TDs on 20 attempts. Phillip Ely had a big game as well, totaling 322 yards and two TDs through the air.
Bowling Green is a nine-point favorite against the Rockets.
Heading into Week 12 of the college football season, the Falcons are 8-2 for both Straight Up (SU) and Against The Spread (ATS). In the past five games, Bowling Green is a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS. Bowling Green has seen an increase in scoring in recent weeks compared to its 45.4 points per game average. Over the past five games, they’ve averaged 54 points per game. A focal point of Bowling Green’s offense is its passing game, which ranks second in the country with 414.1 passing yards per game. During their last five games, the Falcons have also improved their pass coverage, giving up an average of 245.4 passing yards. It is critical for the Rockets to prepare for Bowling Green’s big-play defense. The Falcons rank 17th in the nation with 1.3 interceptions per game. The Falcons are one of the best in the country at scoring in the fourth quarter, averaging 9.7 points.
On the other side, the Rockets have a record of 8-1 for both ATS and SU. Over their last five games, the Rockets have a SU and ATS record of 4-1 for those betting with them. The Rockets have averaged 41 PPG over the last five games, above their 34.9 PPG season average. If earlier games are any indication, the Rockets will run the ball aggressively. They average 216.8 rushing yards per game, good enough for 22nd in Division I. Moving on to the Toledo defense, it has some favorable matchups that it may be able to take advantage of as well. Toledo’s 16th-ranked run defense has given its competition difficulty. Opponents have only run for 117.6 yards per game against this menacing group. The Bowling Green offensive line, which ranks 107th in the country with 2.8 sacks allowed per game, could be an area where the Rockets attack. The Rockets could take advantage of Bowling Green’s reputation as a slow starter on defense. The Falcons are 104th in Division I in first-quarter points allowed with 8.5. Toledo has put in some strong special teams performances this season. The team has averaged 114.6 return yards per game, ranking them 17th in the nation.
Predictions: SU Winner – Toledo, ATS Winner – Toledo
Notes
Bowling Green is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games.
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Bowling Green’s last 13 games.
Bowling Green is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Bowling Green’s last 5 games at home.
Bowling Green is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Toledo.
Bowling Green is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Toledo.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Bowling Green’s last 5 games when playing Toledo.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Bowling Green’s last 6 games when playing at home against Toledo.
Toledo is 8-1 SU when leading at the start of the 4th quarter this season. Bowling Green is 6-0 SU when carrying a lead into the fourth quarter.
The Bowling Green defense has forced an average of 2.4 turnovers over its last five games, but Toledo is 2-1 SU this season when turning the ball over at least 2.0 times in a game.
Among all FBS teams, the Bowling Green offensive passing game is ranked second in the nation, while the Toledo pass defense is only ranked 102nd. The Rockets passing attack is ranked 41st, compared to the 108th-ranked pass defense of the Falcons.
