The Nevada Wolf Pack and Toledo Rockets will continue their non-conference schedules when they square off at Mackay Stadium in Nevada on Saturday evening. The contest is slated to begin on Saturday, September 9th at 7:00 p.m. EST and can be watched on ESPN3. Heading into this match-up, the Rockets are -9.5 favorite to go 2-0 and the over/under sits at 70.
Toledo kicked off its season with a 47-13 blowout of Elon. The Wolf Pack lost at Northwestern 31-20 last weekend. Unfortunately, they were up 20-17 heading into the fourth quarter but gave up 14 unanswered to end the contest.
Toledo Rockets (1-0)
The Toledo Rockets got of to a slow start against Elon last Saturday. As a result, they settled for four field goals in their five scoring possessions in the first half. Directly after, Diontae Johnson took the opening second half kick-off 99 yards to pat-dirt and the route was on.
Eventually, Toledo finished the contest with 24 first downs and 553 total yards of offense. The Rockets brought a balanced offensive attack for all four quarters of the game, winning 47-13. Conversely, Elon had just seven first downs and completed only 3-of-14 passes for the entire match.
Especially efficient on offense, Toledo is led by quarterback Logan Woodside. The 6’2”, 210-pound senior completed 69.1 percent of his passes in 2016 for 4,129 yards and 45 touchdowns.
Furthermore, he ranked second nationally in passer rating and tossed at least three scoring scores in 12 of his team’s 13 games. Last week, Woodside completed 19-of-31 passes for 314 yards. He didn’t score a touchdown, but the running game notched four of them.
Leading the way on the ground for Toledo was running backs Shakif Seymour and Terry Swanson. Seymour led the Rockets with 102 rushing yards an a touchdown. Swanson pitched in nicely, collecting another 36 yards with two trips to the back of the end zone.
Last year, wide out Cody Thompson had 64 catches for 1,269 yards and 11 scores as a junior and is averaging 20.4 yards per reception in his career. Against Elon, he brought in five passes for 112 yards and a score. Besides returning a kick-off for a score, wide receiver Diontae Johnson also caught four passes for 102 yards and a touchdown.
The Rockets defense wasn’t challenged much by the Elon offense in their opening game last Saturday. In fact, Elon only completed three passes in 14 tries. They did see plenty of action up front, as Elon carried the football 40 times for 128 yards. Nevada will certainly test their secondary as well as give their front seven plenty of action.
Nevada (0-1)
The Wildcats scored 14 unanswered points to upend Nevada last weekend. The Wolf Pack had a 20-17 lead with less than six minutes to go, but was never able to strike back. Overall, their defense allowed over 500 yards and Northwestern notched 26 first downs, but still remained competitive through most of the contest. This is despite Nevada only having the ball for 21 minutes and turning it over twice.
At quarterback for their opening contest, Ty Gangi was rather mediocre passing the ball, completing just 16-of-37 passes for 199 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. Norvell added that quarterback Ty Gangi will likely start against Toledo on Saturday.
The Nevada rushing attack showed pretty well against the Wildcats, producing 142 yards on 26 attempts. It was mostly led by Jaxson Kincaide, who had 15 carries for 86 yards. Unfortunately for the Wolf Pack, nobody out of the backfield was able to notch a touchdown.
Leading Nevada receivers McLane Mannix and Wyatt Demps were pretty much the lone threats down the field against Northwestern. Together, they combined for 7 catches for 127 yards and the both touchdowns that Ty Gangi threw. I expect them to test the Toledo rocket’s secondary a lot more than they did Northwestern.
The Wolf Pack defense surely would like to see some improvement after giving way to over 500 yards of offense to Northwestern. There is little doubt that Toledo will give them another stiff test this weekend. One player that stuck out in Week One was defender Austin Paulhus. Paulhus had an amazing outing by recording 15 total tackles and 3.5 of them for a loss.
Prediction
As good as Toledo’s offense is, the defense did not follow suit in 2016. In the Rockets’ four losses last year, they allowed point totals of 55, 55, 31, and 31. Toledo was torched for almost 90 runs of 10-plus yards and 30 of 20 or more. That doesn’t bode well on the road against a capable offense that the wolf Pack will field.
Speaking of the Nevada offense, they might not have lit up the scoreboard against Northwestern but they were playing a BIG-10 defense on the road. I expect we will see much better numbers against Toledo’s unit. On the flip side to that coin, the Rockets can score on anybody, anytime and anywhere. That will be the case once again in Nevada.
Odds gurus have this total at 70 and I believe that is where you should place your bet. Yes, the 9.5 point spread could easily be bought up to 10.5 to give you a little leeway but in shoot-outs, anything can happen. Play it safe in this football match and play the over 70 as both of these club’s offenses will get the job done on Saturday.
Trends
The Rockets are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games.
The Rockets are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games.
The Over is 4-1 in the Rockets last 5 non-conference games.
The Under is 5-2-1 in the Rockets last 8 games overall.
The Wolf Pack are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
The Wolf Pack are 5-2-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
The Over is 4-1 in the Wolf Pack last 5 home games.
The Under is 32-13 in the Wolf Pack last 45 games overall.
Join the Rainmaker and myself for our 5th addition of our NCAA College Football Throwdown Podcast on September 7th. We will be previewing all the upcoming games for Week Two and discussing the contest’s spreads and totals. We also will be giving our dog picks of the week as well as in-depth coverage of some of the weekend’s biggest games.
As of now, I’m cranking out winners at a 58 percent clip for the getmoresports.com readers and hope to push that over the 60 percent mark by the weekend’s end. Again, come join us for some valuable betting advice that could directly effect your pocket books come Monday.
