It will be a battle between Mid-American opponents when the Western Michigan Broncos (11-18) welcome the Toledo Rockets (17-12) to University Arena in Read Fieldhouse. Action starts at 7:00 pm ET on Tuesday, Mar. 1 and will air on ES3.
The Broncos were beaten by Northern Illinois 76-67 on Saturday. Thomas Wilder finished with 17 points to lead the team. The Rockets are coming off a bitter 76-74 loss against Central Michigan on Saturday. Nathan Boothe had a game-high 23 points.
A focal point for Western Michigan is getting to the free throw line. It ranks 32nd in the nation in FTA rate (43.5), but Toledo is among the best in the nation at keeping opponents away from the charity stripe (ranking 23rd by yielding a FTA rate of 27.3).
This will be the second matchup of the season between these two teams. The Rockets won the first game 89-62. Boothe put up a double-double in the victory with 16 points and 10 rebounds.
The Broncos enter the game with records of 11-18 Straight Up (SU) and 11-13 Against The Spread (ATS).
On the other side, the Rockets have records of 14-12 ATS and 17-12 SU. The Rockets rank 46th in the country in scoring, averaging 78.7 points per game. The Rockets are shooting lights out from the foul line so far, with a .752 free throw percentage that ranks 21st in Division I. The Rockets are one of the top teams in the country at finding the open man with an average of 16.8 assists per game. Don’t expect Toledo to give away the ball much on offense, where its 10.9 turnovers per game ranks 30th in the country.
With the Rockets’ last win against Western Michigan, Toledo is still behind in the head-to-head record over their most recent meetings, 4-6 SU. Additionally, Western Michigan leads the matchup ATS with a record of 6-4. Toledo had the advantage in three key areas (field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers) one time over the last five matchups. Western Michigan has never had the edge in all three categories.
Predictions: SU Winner – Toledo, ATS Winner – Toledo
Notes
Toledo averages 78.7 points per game (ranked 46th). Western Michigan, on the other hand, allows 74.1 points per game (ranked 190th).
Toledo scores 74.8 points per away game (ranked 54th). Western Michigan ranks a poor 209th in points allowed at home, allowing 73.0 points.
Ranked 46th, the Toledo Rockets have an offensive rating of 113.0. The Western Michigan Broncos rank 218th with a defensive rating of just 106.7.
Western Michigan has an average field goal percentage of 43.4%. Toledo is an even 8-8 when opponents have a similar or higher field goal percentage.
The Western Michigan Broncos rank higher based on their field goal percentage (210th) than their effective field goal percentage (232nd). The Toledo Rockets rank higher based on their effective field goal percentage (53rd) than their field goal percentage (76th).
Ranked 19th in the nation, Toledo has an average of 16.8 assists per game. Western Michigan ranks lower at 268th with 12.0.
Western Michigan ranks 155th in offensive rebounds, while Toledo ranks 73rd in defensive rebounds.
On average, Western Michigan forces a turnover rate of 17.2%. When Toledo turns over the ball at a similar or higher rate, the team has a solid 7-4 record.
