The final week of the College Football season is here. Before we get to the playoff and bowl, we have to get through the conference championships and as those approach, it’s time to look at the top 5 betting trends for NCAA football this week:
Utah has covered 10 of its last 13 against teams with a winning record. They are also 6-2 ATS in their last eight as an underdog and 14-5 in their last 19 neutral-site affairs. Washington is just 2-8 ATS this season as a favorite.
The Utes are very good in neutral-site games. That’s because, among active coaches with at least 10 bowl appearances, Kyle Whittingham has the best winning percentage of anyone in the United States (10-1 in bowl games). But keep in mind that part of that is because Whittingham has never won the Pac-12 championship, which he is trying to win on Friday against Washington. Because Utah hasn’t won a Pac-12 title, the Utes have not played in featured bowl games. They almost always play in late-December bowl games against the fourth- or fifth-place teams in other conferences. The matchups are favorable.
Related: College Football Betting Guide | College Football Betting Trends
If Utah wins this game, it will probably play either Ohio State or Michigan in the Rose Bowl … and will likely lose … but Utah probably won’t even get that far.
Utah is playing without first-string quarterback Tyler Huntley and first-string running back Zack Moss, both injured midway through the season. Their backups were good enough to beat Oregon and BYU at home in November, but Washington played Oregon very close on the road (overtime) and crushed BYU 35-7 at home. The Huskies are also getting healthier now, unlike Utah. Tight end Hunter Bryant and offensive lineman Trey Adams are both back in the lineup after missing all of September and October. Everything in this game lines up for Washington.
Northwestern is 6-0 ATS as an underdog this season and 12-3 ATS in its last 15. That includes going 5-1 ATS as a dog of 10.5-21. The Buckeyes are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 (0-3 this season) as a favorite of 10.5 to 21.
The key here is that Ohio State will probably take the field knowing it must play really well to impress the playoff committee. As long as Oklahoma or Georgia wins earlier on Saturday, Ohio State will have to win by a large margin to have a realistic chance of making the playoff after Oklahoma and Georgia finished ahead of the Buckeyes in the most recent playoff rankings. That should be all the motivation the Buckeyes need to win very big.
UCF has covered six straight home games against Memphis, winning outright each time. Memphis is 16-11 ATS in the last three seasons when favored, and just 4-7 ATS as a dog.
The reality in this game is that UCF will be without quarterback McKenzie Milton, the AAC Player of the Year. Darriel Mack, Jr. will replace Milton. He is a good runner and an underdeveloped passer. UCF’s defense is playing well, but as long as the offense is limited without Milton, it is hard to like UCF against the spread.
Texas has covered in 10 of its last 13 as a dog, including five of the last six as a dog of 3.5 to 10 points. They’ve also covered three straight against Oklahoma.
Texas regularly plays Oklahoma tough. Tom Herman, the Texas coach, regularly does well as an underdog, which explains Texas’ strong numbers against the spread as an underdog. Even though there are concerns about the health of Texas quarterback Sam Ehlinger, who did not look sharp last week against Kansas, Texas can still run the ball against Oklahoma’s suspect defense. Given the touchdown spread, Texas is still a good bet, taking the points.
Georgia has covered seven of their last eight neutral site games. They’re also 5-1 ATS this season and 15-5 ATS in their last 20 against teams with a winning record. Alabama is 8-4 ATS and a perfect 12-0 SU in their last 12 when favored by 10.5 to 21 points.
Is Georgia really good enough? That’s the question everyone is asking before this game. Alabama has not looked great the last couple of first halves – not nearly as strong as in previous weeks – but the Crimson Tide have still blown out opponents in the third quarters of games. Georgia, though, lost by 20 to the same LSU team which got shut out, 29-0, by Alabama on LSU’s home field. That’s a large gap between the two teams. Yes, this game is in Atlanta, but Georgia has not earned the benefit of the doubt heading into this game.
