The bowls are here. The final portion of the 2018 college football season is underway, and the flood of postseason games is about to reach high volume. Here are the top 5 betting trends for NCAA football this weekend:
Louisiana Tech is 4-1 ATS as a dog this year and 10-5 ATS in their last 15 in that role. They are also 5-2 ATS in their last seven bowl games.
The Louisiana Tech angle is not something to be discounted, but there is a unique twist involved in the Bulldogs’ 2018 bowl game: They are playing a pure road game this time. Louisiana Tech has to go to Hawaii to play the Rainbow Warriors in a bowl game. The game starts at 9:30 p.m. Louisiana time, and even though the Bulldogs will have spent the previous week of preparation in Honolulu, they will still be playing the game at a time when their body clocks won’t be used to it. Hawaii won’t have that problem. The Rainbow Warriors are also a good team, having defeated San Diego State on the road in their season finale. They were very competitive in the Mountain West Conference this season and performed above preseason expectations. Hawaii looks like the right choice here.
Related: College Football Betting Guide
Memphis is 7-3 ATS as a favorite this season, 1-2 ATS otherwise. They have won 23 of their last 27 straight up when favored. However, they have lost and failed to cover two straight bowl games and six of their last nine.
The Tigers might have had the best player on the field in the Birmingham Bowl, but now that player won’t be active in the game. Darrell Henderson was arguably the best running back in college football this year. He was viewed by some commentators as worthy of a Heisman Trophy finalist invitation, but has announced that he will not play in this game. Memphis will now have to be a lot more one-dimensional on offense, trusting its passing game and not knowing where production will come in the running game. That is a very good reason to take Wake Forest in this game.
Houston is 118-52 as a favorite since 1992 and just 38-108 when posted as the dog. They’ve also failed to cover five straight off a bye week.
The Cougars will not be playing with their best player, defensive tackle Ed Oliver. Without Oliver, the Cougars will be toothless on defense in the face of the Army triple-option offense. Army has won 10 games and owns the kind of offense which is not easy to prepare for if you are unfamiliar with that system. Houston might score a lot, but Army will score more.
BYU has won and covered three straight as a favorite of 10.5 to 21. They’ve covered 11 of their last 14 games on turf, including five of six this year. The under is 19-8 in their last 27 neutral site affairs, including 24-10 in their last 34 non-conference games.
Western Michigan simply didn’t do much of anything this season, in a mediocre Mid-American Conference, to suggest that it will be able to physically compete with BYU. The Broncos are not very strong in the trenches, and the Cougars should be able to push them around. BYU did not make a bowl game last season, so the Cougars will likely be very excited to play this game. BYU will not suffer in that regard, and it has the clearly better team. It should do well against Western Michigan.
This is Buffalo’s third bowl appearance in the last three decades. They’ve lost and failed to cover the other two. The over has cashed in seven straight Troy bowl games and is 43-21 in their last 64 non-conference games.
The main thing to realize in this game is that Troy’s starting quarterback was injured midway through the season. Kaleb Barker was knocked out for the season, and Sawyer Smith had to replace him. Troy’s offensive performances, especially against Appalachian State, were not very strong with Smith under center. Buffalo, for that primary reason, has the clear edge in the Dollar General Bowl.
