Week 13 of the 2018 college football season is rivalry week. It is also the last game of the regular season for a lot of teams. It is, for some teams, the lead-in to conference championship games or a game which will knock teams out of conference championship games. With so many possibilities on the table, let’s look at the top 5 betting trends for NCAA football this week.
Ohio State is 19-7 ATS in their last 26 as a dog of 3.5 to 10 points. They’ve been a home dog of 3.5 to 7 points just twice since 1992 and covered both times. Michigan is favored against Ohio State for the first time since 2001 and is favored for the first time at the Horseshoe since 2004.
When Michigan was favored at Ohio State in 2004, it did not win. This has become a hellhole for the Wolverines, and even though they are favored, Ohio State will be motivated. Michigan needs to prove it can overcome its doubts against a rival which has had its number over the years. Be skeptical of Michigan here. Both teams were caught looking ahead to this rivalry game last week.
Related: College Football Betting Guide | College Football Teasers
Notre Dame hasn’t been favored by more than six-points at USC in a game since betting lines became widely available in 1985. USC could be a double-digit home underdog for the first time since 1997 when Florida State was -12 at the Coliseum. USC is 1-8 ATS and SU in their last nine as an underdog. They are also 2-8 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.
Notre Dame won easily against Syracuse, meaning that it did not have to overextend its starters. USC quarterback J.T. Daniels is a mess, having just played poorly against a 3-8 UCLA team. USC head coach Clay Helton is in danger of being fired. Even if you believe that Notre Dame is overrated, USC is not the kind of team to expose the Irish in any way. The trends – more than anything else – show just how bad USC is right now.
Alabama is the second-biggest favorite it has ever been against Auburn. Alabama is 4-1 ATS this season and 8-3 ATS in its last 11 as a favorite of 21.5 to 31 points. They have covered 64.3 percent of games in this role since 1992.
The Crimson Tide looked bored and unfocused in their win over The Citadel. They were extremely focused in back-to-back shutout wins and they were looking ahead to Auburn and the Iron Bowl. Alabama has been miles beyond every team it has played this season. There is no reason to expect that to change now. The Tide should win by a very big number, at least 24 points if not a lot more.
Washington is 2-9 ATS this season, 1-7 ATS in conference games and 1-5 ATS against teams with a winning record. Washington State is 10-1 ATS overall, 7-1 ATS in conference play and 4-1 ATS against teams with a winning record. Wazzu has covered eight of their last 10 games where the line is +3 to -3.
Washington has not scored in bunches for most of this year. Washington has not done well when favored by double-digit spreads. However, Washington is a slight underdog in this game, which presents a very different context. Washington State has also not beaten Washington in the last five meetings between the two schools.
Over has cashed in nine of last 11 Oklahoma games and eight of their last 10 games when they’re a road favorite. Over is also 6-2 for West Virginia when they play on turf. Six of the last seven in this series have gone over.
This game should have at least 90 points, and very realistically will go over 100 points. Oklahoma gave up 40 points to Kansas last week, while West Virginia gave up 45 to Oklahoma State. West Virginia has a much better offense than Kansas, and OU has a much better offense than Oklahoma State. This game should be a fireworks show.
