We’re well into Week 10 of the college football season as we’ve had some midweek MACtion, but make no mistakes about it, Week 10 is all about Alabama-LSU. Can the No. 3 Tigers actually challenge – or even beat – Alabama? That’s the question on everyone’s minds as we get set for one of the best games of the year. Let’s take a look at the top 5 betting trends for NCAA football this week.
LSU Hasn’t Been A Home Underdog Of This Size (+14.5) Since 1999. The Tide Have Covered 10 Of Last 13 Meetings.
The LSU Tigers are an impressive 7-1 and are the No. 3 team in the country according to the College Football Playoff rankings. However, the Tigers aren’t getting much respect from the oddsmakers as they are a whopping 14.5-point underdog on Saturday night. Of course, this has to do with the fact that the Alabama Crimson Tide have looked untouchable. They are 8-0 and haven’t won by less than 22 points in any contest.
Related: College Football Betting Guide | College Football Trends
Of course, this will be their toughest test to date but this hasn’t really been a close series. Alabama has won nine of the last 13 meetings while covering the spread in 10 of those games.
In case you’re wondering, when the Tigers were last such a big home dog, they lost the game (back in 1999) to the Florida Gators by a final score of 31-10.
Texas Has Covered Just Once As A Favorite This Season (1-5). West Virginia Has Covered Just Once In Their Last Seven As An Underdog (1-6).
One of the marquee matchups of the week pits two strong Big 12 teams against each other. The challenge is that both teams aren’t particularly comfortable in their respective roles. While Texas has won four of six games as a favorite this year (losing to Maryland and Oklahoma State), they have actually only covered once. There have also been a number of closer-than-expected calls. As for the Mountaineers, they have yet to be a dog this year but haven’t thrived in the role. They are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven as underdogs.
Texas A&M Has Covered Six Of Eight Games This Season, Including Three Of Four Against Winning Teams
The Aggies have been a surprise team both for college football fans and bettors. They are 5-3 on the season but have covered six of eight spreads – including three of four against teams above .500. Auburn has been a disappointment, covering just two of their last seven games since their season-opening win over Washington.
It’s also worth noting that the Aggies seem to have Auburn’s number. Texas A&M has won three straight at Auburn and covered all three games in the process.
Florida Is 5-1 ATS As A Favorite This Season. Missouri Is 0-2 ATS As An Underdog And 0-3 ATS On The Road
Missouri has been a bad bet all season long as they are just 4-4 straight up and 3-4-1 ATS. They really blew it last week as they had a chance to earn a signature win against No. 12 Kentucky. They were a 7.5-point favorite and were up 14-3 in that game but ended up losing 15-14. Now they head out on the road to play in The Swamp and Missouri has not been a good road team this year. It’s also worth noting that Missouri has been a disaster in conference play, losing all four games and failing to cover each time.
Penn State Is 6-1 ATS In Their Last Seven As An Underdog. They’ve Only Been An Underdog Once This Year (Against Ohio State) And Covered.
The Nittany Lions are a 10.5-point dog at Michigan this week and they’ll have a tall task in front of them. The Wolverines are 4-1 ATS and 5-0 SU at home this season. The Wolverines are also 9-1 over the last three seasons and 72-8 in their last 80 games as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points.
However, Penn State seems to thrive in the underdog role. They’re also better on the road than you might think, cover eight of their last 12 while winning nine of those games.
