Week 9 of the 2018 college football season features the heart of various conferences races across the country. The Georgia-Florida game is the main course in a week that features just three games between teams in the Top 25. It’s still slated to be a very entertaining weekend and we’ve highlighted five good matchups and noted the top 5 betting trends in those games.
The South Carolina Gamecocks are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a straight-up loss. The Tennessee Volunteers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 conference games.
The Gamecocks had an off week, which they badly needed in order to recharge. This is a must-win for a team that was expected to do a lot better in the SEC East this season. Tennessee has also improved recently. It just got torn apart by Alabama, but that’s not unique to the Vols. Everyone is being shredded by the Crimson Tide. Tennessee’s win at Auburn offers a better indication of where the Vols are.
Related: College Football Betting Guide | Opening Odds
Will South Carolina’s week off revitalize the Gamecocks? Probably so. Teams that get weeks of rest this late in the season are often exhausted heading into the break. Getting a chance to find their bearings often yields dividends, so trust South Carolina in this one.
The Texas Longhorns are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games versus a team with a winning record. Texas is 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in its last 10 visits to Stillwater.
The above stats reinforce that Texas has been a nemesis for Oklahoma State. The Longhorns have usually had OSU’s number over the past few decades. Oklahoma State will probably play very hard, knowing that it can change the direction of its season with a win here. However, the Cowboys have been a bad team since their win over Boise State. They have looked like the average team most people thought they would be before the season started. Texas, on the other hand, has finally shown signs of developing into a complete team. The one big question is the health of starting quarterback Sam Ehlinger, who would not have played last weekend if the Longhorns had a game. He should play this week, but he might not be effective. Nevertheless, expect Texas to win as long as Ehlinger is reasonably competent.
Clemson has won 13 straight as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points and is 8-4-1 ATS in those games. The Florida State Seminoles are 2-6-2 ATS in their last 10 games versus a team with a winning record.
Florida State will treat this game like its Super Bowl, but that doesn’t mean it will come close to Clemson. The Tigers look very good with Trevor Lawrence at quarterback. They almost lost to Syracuse when Lawrence was injured, but now they have stabilized and have more talent than any other team in the nation … except Alabama. Clemson looks like a very strong choice here.
The Georgia Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a straight-up loss. The Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
The thing to realize about Georgia is that it lost badly on the road last year to Auburn, and it rebounded and won the SEC championship before then winning the Rose Bowl and making the national title game. The loss at LSU a week and a half ago does not show that Georgia is in a state of decline. It should win decisively against Florida.
Kentucky is 5-1 ATS and 4-2 SU in its last six as a dog of 3.5 to 10 points. The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS versus a team with a winning record.
The difference between this game for Kentucky and other games it has played this season: The other team has a good quarterback. Kentucky has contained some mediocre passers, the latest one being Vanderbilt’s Kyle Shurmur in Week 8. In Week 9, though, Drew Lock faces the Wildcats. Given how little Kentucky has been able to score, Missouri won’t need 35 points to win. 27 or 24 might be enough. Missouri looks like a solid upset pick.
