Week 6 of the 2018 college football season introduces a new set of situations to consider. Here are the top 5 betting trends for NCAA football to keep in mind when betting the more notable games of the week:
This is the closest spread in a Red River Rivalry game (7.5-points) since 2012 when Oklahoma was favored by three points over Texas. Each of the last five spreads between these two teams have had Oklahoma favored by at least nine points. Texas is 2-3 SU and 5-0 ATS in those five games.
These rivalry games are always hard to predict. Texas is not as talented as Oklahoma this year, but Texas also wasn’t nearly as talented as Oklahoma last year, and the Longhorns still made this game very close. They were in the game with a chance to win until the final moments of regulation time. Texas figures to give Oklahoma a fight in the same way that other underdogs in rivalries often do. This game is Texas’ season. The Longhorns might have lost to Maryland, but they have played very inspired ball the past few weeks, and they know if they can beat Oklahoma, they have a chance to contend for the Big 12 title. This doesn’t mean Texas will win, but it does mean that you are going to see maximum effort from Texas. Oklahoma’s offense should thrive in this game, but the Sooners’ defense remains noticeably leaky. The Sooners could not stop Army’s rushing attack, and Baylor consistently moved the ball against the Sooners last week. Texas covering the spread seems like a good prediction to make.
Related: College Football Betting Guide | Betting Trends
Syracuse hasn’t been favored at Pittsburgh since 2001. The Orange are 0-7 SU and 2-5 ATS in the seven meetings since that point, including in 2016 when the two teams played to a wild 76-61 game in favor of Pittsburgh. That was only the eighth time in FBS history that a team scored 60+ points in a game and lost.
The Orange lost to Clemson, but not before putting a major scare into the Tigers. Syracuse came within one fourth-down stop late in the fourth quarter from being in position to win the game with two or three first downs. However, Clemson completed the fourth-down pass and managed to win. Syracuse will lose to Pitt only if it allows the hangover from the Clemson loss to affect its performance. Otherwise, the Orange are far better than the Panthers this year.
San Diego State has opened as a 15.5-point underdog at Boise State. The last time the Aztecs were greater than two-touchdown underdogs against a Group of Five team was Nov. 3, 2012 at Boise State. The Aztecs were +16 that day and won outright, 21-19.
San Diego State has often given Boise State problems in the recent past, but not last year. Boise State went into San Diego and drilled the Aztecs. That revenge angle looms large for San Diego State this season. Boise State has better players, but SDSU will be determined to contain the Broncos’ offense. That should be enough to cover the spread. San Diego State defeated one Pac-12 team, Arizona State, and held another — Stanford — to just one touchdown in the first half in Week 1 before Stanford got things together in the second half. SDSU can play with Boise State, especially when the Aztecs are on defense.
Miami is favored by 13 points at Florida State. The last time the Hurricanes were favored by more than a touchdown against FSU was in 2002, a game Miami won 28-27 as a 13.5-point chalk.
The Hurricanes might be very good with new quarterback N’Kosi Perry under center, but it is hard to make an informed statement at this point. Perry is relatively untested, and while Florida State’s secondary is poor, the Seminoles’ pass rush is strong. All in all, it is hard to expect Miami to win by a huge margin against Florida State. That is not how this rivalry has unfolded this decade.
Unranked Texas A&M is a six-point home favorite against No. 13 Kentucky. No. 8 Auburn is only -4 at unranked Mississippi State.
A&M is favored because a number of important Kentucky players are injured; because A&M is at home; and because Kentucky is probably going to pick up a few SEC losses at some point and does not have a dominant, take-charge kind of offense. Auburn is a small favorite against Mississippi State because it has looked terrible in recent weeks.
The A&M pick is solid because Kentucky has not beaten very good teams yet. The Wildcats are likely to come down to earth. The Auburn-MSU game is tougher to call, but Auburn usually gets better as the season goes along. Auburn often plays poorly in September under Gus Malzahn and improves in October and November.
