Week 1 of the 2018 NFL season is just days away. As sports bettors and fantasy football fans are handicapping this week’s action, we pulled out five interesting trends that might help you make some decisions. Let’s take a look at five key NFL trends for Week 1.
Since 2003, Cleveland is an underdog for the 26th time in 28 games against Pittsburgh. The Browns are 3-25 straight up during that stretch.
The Browns take on the Steelers in Week 1 and clearly, they haven’t had a very good history against this team. Much of this has to do with the fact that they can’t find a reliable starting quarterback while the Steelers – for almost all of that time – have had Ben Roethlisberger.
If there is a silver lining, it is the fact that the Browns have a winning ATS record at home in the last 22 meetings in Cleveland. While they are just 6-17 straight up in those games, they are 12-10 ATS at home versus Pittsburgh in that time.
The Giants are a home dog for the seventh straight home game. They are 2-4 straight up in the previous six games.
Following a 3-13 season where the Giants managed to win just two home games, they find themselves as a home dog to start the 2018 campaign. They’re a three-point dog to the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday.
Obviously, the Giants have not fared well in this role – or any role – in the last year. Looking at specific numbers, the Giants are just 9-15-4 ATS and 9-19 SU in their last 28 as a home dog of three points or less.
A couple of things that bodes well for the Giants is that the Jaguars don’t fare well as small road favorites and they don’t play well at MetLife Stadium. The Jags are 10-15 ATS and 12-13 SU in their last 25 as a road favorite of three or less. As for the Giants home stadium, Jacksonville is 0-6 straight up (2-4 ATS) in its history at MetLife Stadium.
The Rams haven’t won a Monday Night Football game since 2004. They are 0-7 straight up (1-6 ATS) and lost six of the seven games by double digits.
The Rams are a 4.5-point road favorite at Oakland in the late game of the Monday Night Football double-header and everyone seems to be anointing them a winner before the game has even kicked off. Of course, the Raiders have been picked apart by the media after making a slew of questionable offseason moves, the latest being the trading of Defensive Player of the Year, Khalil Mack.
But the Rams have not played well under the Monday night lights, losing seven straight times. They haven’t even been close in most of those games as the trend suggests. For what it’s worth, the Rams were one of the least active teams this preseason in terms of putting their starters out there as Todd Gurley didn’t play a single snap while Jared Goff played sparingly. We’ll see if they are rusty at all in this one.
Houston is 0-4 straight up (1-3 ATS) in its history at New England (including playoffs). The average margin of victory for the Patriots in those four games is 22.75.
Like many teams in the NFL, the Texans don’t have a very good track record against the Patriots. They’ve lost all four meetings with the teams while getting blown out in most of them. If there is some hope for this year’s Week 1 matchup, it’s the fact that the Texans nearly pulled off the win last season. They ended up losing (but covering) in a 36-33 loss at New England but the Patriots needed a miracle touchdown with less than a minute remaining to earn the win.
With Tom Brady as the starter, New England has been favored at home in 31 straight games (including playoffs), including this week where it is a 6.5-point favorite. The last time Brady was an underdog at home was November 2, 2014 vs. Denver (Patriots +3, won 43-21).
If the Texans are to pull off the win this week, they’ll have to do it as an underdog. That’s been pretty much the case for any team that’s visited New England in the Tom Brady-Bill Belichick era. Brady’s Patriots have been favored for 31 straight games at home. Overall, they are 27-10-1 ATS and 32-6 SU in their last 38 games as a favorite.
The Patriots are also 5-1 ATS and SU in their last six as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points.
