There has been no shortage of surprises throughout the first three weeks of the NFL season.However, while it’s impossible to predict every outcome, we have identified a handful of sports betting trends worth keeping in mind as you attempt to handicap this upcoming week in the NFL. Here is a look at the top five betting trends for NFL Week 4.
New England is 5-0 against the spread in its last five home games versus Miami. This is going to be the 19th time in 20 meetings since 2003 that New England is favored over Miami (Dolphins were favored on December 15th, 2013). The Patriots are going to be favorites for the 32nd straight home game that Tom Brady starts (including playoffs).
The Patriots are coming off their second consecutive loss to an AFC opponent and have failed to cover in either of their last two games. Now they face a Miami side that has opened the season with three straight wins to climb atop the AFC East. New England can’t afford to fall three games back of the Dolphins in the first quarter of the year (and lose the head-to-head tiebreaker). The good news for Patriots fans is that their team has had Miami’s number at home. New England is 5-0 against the spread and 5-0 straight up in its last five home games against the Dolphins. Many people expect this to be a game where the Patriots get back on track and stay in the division race.
The Texans are now the proud owners of the longest losing streak in the NFL at nine straight games. Houston has also failed to cover its last eight games dating back to last season. Now Houston heads to Indianapolis, a place it has won just twice in 16 tries. The last nine games between the Texans and Colts in Indianapolis have gone under the total with an average final total of just 37.3 points per game.
Bill O’Brien is starting to feel the heat in Houston as his Texans just aren’t delivering. A loss on the road to the New England Patriots? Understandable. A loss at home to the New York Giants? Unacceptable. Now the Texans have to go on the road to a place where they always seem to struggle. And the Colts look like a tough out this season, nearly winning in Philadelphia last week. The Texans main problem is their horrendous offensive line and it’s hard to see that problem get fixed until the offseason.
Tennessee is 4-1 against the spread in its last five home games
Anybody that forgot about the Titans following a Week 1 loss to the Miami Dolphins should certainly remember them following back-to-back wins over Houston and Jacksonville. And considering the Dolphins are 3-0, maybe that loss doesn’t look so bad. Despite mounting injuries, Tennessee picked up a hard-fought victory over a previously undefeated Jacksonville side in a key division game last Sunday. Now they welcome the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles into town with a chance to make a statement.
The Titans are 4-1 against the spread in their last five home games. We don’t often think about Nissan Stadium as a venue that offers a good home-field advantage but the numbers show us otherwise.
The total has gone over in six of the last seven meetings between the Lions and Cowboys
The Lions and Cowboys have combined for some high scoring games over the last decade. This year’s meeting feels like it could be a bit different as the Lions still have a potent offense but the Cowboys seem muted. At that same time, that’s why we see a total of about 43.5 in this game and not something closer to 50.
Seattle is 4-0-1 against the spread in its last five road games versus Arizona
The Seahawks were left for dead by NFL handicappers before a, 24-13, win over the Cowboys in Week 3. Now they have a chance to get back to .500 as three-point favorites on the road against the Arizona Cardinals this week. Seattle has enough talent on both sides of the football to beat a slumping Arizona side that will have a rookie first-round pick starting at quarterback in Josh Rosen. The Seahawks are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five road games versus the Cardinals. Look for that trend to continue on Sunday with Seattle winning and covering on the road.
Since 2003, rookie starting quarterbacks are 13-28 SU and 21-20 ATS.
This is worth noting as the Cardinals are starting Josh Rosen. Considering they threw him into the fire last week when the Cards were trailing in the fourth quarter, it makes sense to give him a full shot this week. Arizona is at home and facing a Seahawks team that doesn’t typically travel well.
