Marco Estrada (11-8, 3.16 ERA) and the Toronto Blue Jays (77-58) go up against Chris Tillman (9-10, 4.87 ERA) and the Baltimore Orioles (65-70) in the last of a three-game division series at the Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays won the last game 5-1 and the series is currently tied 1-1. The game gets underway at 1:07 p.m. ET on Sunday, Sep. 6 and will air on MAS2 and RSN.
In his last start, Estrada pitched 7.0 innings, allowing two runs, striking out two and walking one in a 5-3 loss to the Indians. Jose Bautista (.246, 90 Rs, 32 HRs, 91 RBIs, 6 SBs) continued his strong season yesterday, going 2 for 4 with one run, one home run, and two RBIs. The Orioles were unsuccessful the last time Tillman pitched. He struggled, going 4.2 innings, allowing seven runs, striking out five and walking two in an 11-2 loss to the Rays. Chris Davis (.255, 79 Rs, 40 HRs, 100 RBIs, 2 SBs) went 1 for 3 yesterday with one run.
Toronto is a -168 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is nine runs. The Blue Jays perform well as a favorite with a 57-30 record and have an overall money line of +665. Over the last 10 games, they have a very good record when playing as the favorite (7-3). The Blue Jays come into the game with the top-ranked scoring offense in the AL, averaging 5.5 runs per game. They have been very patient at the plate, leading the AL with an average of 3.4 walks per game. Turning to the pitching and defensive side, the Toronto pitching staff and defense is very good at home, only giving up 3.6 runs per game. The Blue Jays are the best in the AL in hits allowed at home, giving up just 7.7 per game.
Moving on to the away team, the Orioles come into this game with a weak win percentage of .400 when playing as the underdog (24-36) and an overall money line of -916. They have played poorly as the underdog as of late. They managed a 2-5 record when playing as the underdog and an SU record of 3-7. When it comes to scoring runs, the Orioles have performed much better than normal against teams from the AL East. During those games, they averaged four runs per game, above their 4.4 season average. The Orioles are known for their power, smashing 177 home runs. The last 10 games have really brought the worst out of the Baltimore pitchers. They allowed 5.2 runs per game during that span, which is higher than their season average of 4.1.
The Blue Jays have mostly come out on top against the Orioles in their previous 14 games this season, earning an 8-6 record. This game will feature Tillman (RHP) on the mound against the Blue Jays, who have a 57-46 record when they take on a right-handed starter. Taking the hill against the Orioles will be the left-hander Estrada. They sport a 17-17 record against southpaws.
Predictions: SU Winner – Tor, O/U – Over
Notes
Baltimore has won 52% (24-22) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Toronto has won 60% (36-24) of its games when taking a late lead.
Having scored one run in their last game, the Orioles are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Blue Jays have a 23-0 record in games where opponents scored that many runs or fewer.
When they outhit their opponents, the Orioles are 47-13. The Blue Jays have a 61-7 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking first in runs, Toronto has earned 737 this season. Baltimore ranks eighth with 587 runs.
Ranking 25th, Baltimore is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 324 this season. Toronto ranks in the top five at second with 462.
When the Blue Jays hit at least one home run, they are 70-29, well-matched with the Orioles who are 58-36 when hitting one or more homers.
