Marco Estrada (4-3, 4.24 ERA) and Mike Wright (2-2, 4.13 ERA) take the hill in the first of a three-game series between the Toronto Blue Jays (36-32) and the Baltimore Orioles (34-32) at the Rogers Centre. Action begins at 7:07 p.m. ET on Friday, Jun. 19 and can be seen on MASN and RSN.
Estrada is 0-1 with a 5.14 ERA in his appearances against the Orioles, and goes up against a quality Baltimore offense which is batting .258 this season. Josh Donaldson (.307, 55 Rs, 17 HRs, 46 RBIs, 3 SBs) continued his strong play yesterday, going 2 for 4 with one run and one RBI. Wright went 4.0 innings, surrendering five runs, striking out two and walking three in a 5-3 defeat to the Yankees in his most recent start. Manny Machado (.289, 43 Rs, 14 HRs, 34 RBIs, 10 SBs) has been successful at the plate for the Orioles, going 2 for 4 yesterday with one run, one home run, one RBI, and one stolen base.
Toronto is a -144 favorite against Baltimore and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at nine runs. The Blue Jays have recorded an overall money line of +128 and have shown high-level performance as a favorite this season with a record of 21-12. Toronto is unbeaten as the favorite and has an 8-2 SU record in its last ten outings. The Blue Jays have seen an uptick in scoring as of late, averaging 7.3 runs during the last 10 games compared to their season average of 5.5 runs per game. The Blue Jays lead the MLB in extra base hits with 232. Toronto is one of the best in the AL in terms of walks, earning an average of 3.3 per game. Crossing over to the pitching staff, the Blue Jays are the fifth-best team in the AL at limiting walks during home games, allowing only 2.7 walks per game to their opponents this season.
As for their opponent, in contrast to an encouraging overall money line (+139), Baltimore has an unimpressive 12-18 record when playing as the underdog. They have managed to pull off a perfect record over their last ten games while playing as the underdog, and have an 8-2 SU record over the same span. Offensively, they average 4.5 runs per game, which is good for third in the AL. The Orioles allow 3.9 runs per game, but have improved upon those numbers in the past 10 games, allowing 2.8 runs per game during that span.
The Blue Jays lead the season series, 6-3. The Blue Jays have a 24-28 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Wright takes the mound. Estrada (RHP) will be on the hill against the Orioles, who have a 26-26 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – TOR, O/U – Over
Notes
The Orioles lost their last game by a one-run margin. In games decided by one run, the Blue Jays are 6-14. The Orioles are 10-10 in close games this season.
The Blue Jays managed to give up five walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Orioles who are coming in with a 7-3 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they are outhit, the Blue Jays are 4-24. The Orioles have a 5-21 record when opponents outhit them.
Both falling in the top five of the league based on total home runs this season, Toronto ranks second with 84 homers and Baltimore is fourth with 82.
Toronto and Baltimore both rank in the top five of the league in hits. Toronto sits at third with 9.10 hits per game and Baltimore ranks fifth with 8.63.
Toronto ranks at the top of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage of .780. Baltimore ranks in the top 10 at sixth with an OPS of .736.
When the Orioles allow at least one home run, they are 19-22. When the Blue Jays allow one or more homers, they have a 23-23 record.
