R.A. Dickey (3-7, 4.88 ERA) and the Toronto Blue Jays (41-36) go up against Clay Buchholz (5-6, 3.68 ERA) and the Boston Red Sox (34-43) in the first of a four-game division series at the Rogers Centre. The game gets underway at 7:07 p.m. ET on Monday, Jun. 29 and will air on NESN and RSN.
Dickey is 6-5 with a 4.45 ERA, 75 strikeouts and 23 walks against the Red Sox in his career. Josh Donaldson (.301, 58 Rs, 18 HRs, 48 RBIs, 3 SBs) played well again yesterday, going 2 for 4 with one run, one home run, and one RBI. In his pitching opportunities against the Blue Jays, Buchholz is 12-9 with a 3.51 ERA. He meets a solid Toronto offense that’s batting .266. Hanley Ramirez (.283, 41 Rs, 15 HRs, 38 RBIs, 3 SBs) has been doing well offensively for the Red Sox, going 2 for 2 yesterday.
Toronto, a -130 favorite, will look to capitalize at home against Boston. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is set at eight runs. The Blue Jays perform well as a favorite with a 24-15 record and have an overall money line of +143. They have a 20-17 record SU and are 9-6 as favorite within their division. The Blue Jays come into the game with the top-ranked scoring offense in the AL, averaging 5.5 runs per game. The Blue Jays rank fourth in the AL in hits with 9.0 per game. They have been very patient at the plate, ranking second in the AL with an average of 3.3 walks per game.
Switching gears, the Red Sox come into this game with a win percentage of .444 when playing as the underdog (12-15) and an overall money line of -1,795. Against divisional rivals, they are 12-24 SU and have played poorly as the underdog with a 5-9 record. Boston has been playing better lately, averaging 5.1 runs per game, more than their season average of 4.1. Opposing pitchers have routinely struggled to strike out the Boston batters, who rank second in the AL with 6.5 strikeouts per game. Playing against AL East foes really brings the worst out of the Boston pitchers. They allow 5.5 runs per game against teams within their division, which is higher than their season average of 4.7.
The Blue Jays have mostly come out on top against the Red Sox in their previous nine games this season, earning a 6-3 record. The Blue Jays will take on a right-hander (Buchholz) in this game and have a 29-32 record against right-handed starting pitchers this season. Taking the hill against the Red Sox will be the right-hander Dickey. They sport a 25-32 record against righties.
Predictions: SU Winner – TOR, O/U – Over
Notes
Toronto recorded at least two errors for the fourth time this season.
When the Blue Jays and the Red Sox play into extra innings, both teams have a 3-2 record.
The Red Sox are coming into this game after allowing one walk during their last outing. The Blue Jays have a 7-8 record when opponents give up that many walks or fewer.
When they outhit their opponents, the Red Sox are 27-5. The Blue Jays have a 35-5 record when outhitting opponents.
Toronto ranks at the top of the league when it comes to runs with 420 this season. Boston ranks in the top half at 14th with 314.
Ranking eighth, Boston is in the top 10 of the league in walks, notching 240 this season. Toronto ranks in the top five at third with 255.
The Blue Jays are 36-18 in games where they hit one or more home runs. The Red Sox are 25-25 when they hit at least one homer.
