Mark Buehrle (8-4, 3.81 ERA) and Rick Porcello (4-8, 5.54 ERA) take the hill in the third of a four-game series between the Toronto Blue Jays (41-38) and the Boston Red Sox (36-43) at the Rogers Centre. The Red Sox won the last game 4-3 and Boston leads the series 2-0. Action begins at 1:07 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Jul. 1 and can be seen on NESN and RSN.
Buehrle is 10-10 with a 4.34 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, and 88 strikeouts against the Red Sox. Chris Colabello (.335, 32 Rs, 6 HRs, 29 RBIs, 2 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday with one RBI. Porcello is 3-5 with a 4.24 ERA when pitching against the Blue Jays. He takes on a good Toronto offense which is hitting .264 this season. Hanley Ramirez (.283, 41 Rs, 15 HRs, 38 RBIs, 3 SBs) has been successful at the plate for the Red Sox, going 2 for 2 yesterday.
Toronto is a -148 favorite against Boston and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at nine runs. The Blue Jays have recorded an overall money line of +122 and have shown high-level performance as a favorite this season with a record of 25-16. Within its division, Toronto has a 9-7 record as favorite and a 20-18 record SU. The Blue Jays have no trouble scoring as they lead the AL in offense with 5.4 runs per game. The Blue Jays are one of the best in the AL in terms of hits with an impressive 8.9 per game.
In games where it is the underdog, Boston has a 14-15 record and an overall money line of -1,518. They played solid baseball as the underdog over their last 10 games with a 5-2 record, and a 6-4 record SU. Offensively, the Red Sox have really picked up the pace in the last 10 games. They have exceeded their season average of 4.1 runs per game by averaging 5.2 during that stretch. Boston is excellent at not striking out with just 6.5 per game, ranking second in the AL. The Red Sox allow 4.6 runs per game, but does worse whenever another team from the AL East Division is on the schedule. They bring that runs allowed average up to 5.3 against division foes.
The Blue Jays lead the season series, 6-5. The Blue Jays have a 30-33 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Porcello takes the mound. Buehrle (LHP) will be on the hill against the Red Sox, who have an 8-11 record against left-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – TOR, O/U – Over
Notes
The Red Sox won their last game by a one-run margin. In games decided by one run, the Blue Jays are 9-16. The Red Sox are 11-10 in close games this season.
The Blue Jays and the Red Sox are both 3-2 in games that go into extra innings.
The Red Sox are coming into this game after allowing two walks during their last outing. The Blue Jays have a 15-15 record when opponents give up that many walks or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Red Sox are 7-36. The Blue Jays have a 6-29 record when opponents outhit them.
Boston ranks in the top half of the league at 12th when it comes to home runs, hitting 76 this season. Toronto ranks in the top five at fourth with 99.
Ranking seventh, Boston is in the top 10 of the league in hits, notching 8.71 per game. Toronto ranks in the top five at fifth with 8.90.
Toronto ranks at the top of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage of .772. Boston ranks in the bottom half at 17th with an OPS of .715.
The Red Sox are 13-34 in games where they allow one or more home runs. The Blue Jays are 25-27 when they allow at least one homer.
