In the first of a three-game series between the Toronto Blue Jays (28-30) and the Miami Marlins (28-30) at the Rogers Centre, Marco Estrada (2-3, 3.77 ERA) and Brad Hand (1-1, 4.24 ERA) get the ball. The Blue Jays go into this series on a five-game winning streak. The game gets underway at 7:07 p.m. ET on Monday, Jun. 8 and will air on FSN-FL and RSN.
Estrada is 1-2 with a 6.44 ERA against the Marlins in his career, and faces a strong Miami offense that’s hitting .261 on the year. Josh Donaldson (.308, 46 Rs, 15 HRs, 40 RBIs, 3 SBs) played well again yesterday, going 2 for 5. The Marlins were victorious over the Cubs 5-2 the last time Hand pitched. He went 6.0 innings, allowing two runs, striking out two and walking two. Dee Gordon (.372, 32 Rs, 16 RBIs, 20 SBs) has been hitting the ball well for the Marlins, going 3 for 4 yesterday with one run.
Toronto, a -145 favorite, will look to capitalize at home against Miami. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is set at nine runs. When playing as the favorite, the Blue Jays have a 17-12 record and overall money line at -381. They have an SU record of 3-3 against the NL and a 1-2 record when they were the favorite in those games. The Blue Jays come into the game with the top-ranked scoring offense in the AL, averaging 5.2 runs per game. The Blue Jays are a stellar hitting team with 9.1 hits per home game, one of the highest marks in the AL. They typically aren’t overmatched by pitchers, ranking third in the AL with an average of only 6.2 strikeouts per home game. Toronto’s pitching staff has put it all together in the past 10 games. Its average runs allowed per game dropped to 3.3 during that span, compared to its 4.5 season average.
On the other side, the Marlins have a record of 12-16 when they are the underdog and are -1,166 overall with the money line. Against teams in the American League, they are 3-3 SU. Playing competition from the AL really brings the worst out of the Miami pitchers. They allow 4.8 runs per game against teams in the AL, which is higher than their season average of 4.2.
The Blue Jays will take on a left-hander (Hand) in this game. They have done very well against left-handed starting pitchers this season (8-4), especially at home where they have a 6-2 record. The right-handed Estrada will take the mound against the Marlins. Against righty starters this season, they have a terrible 16-29 record overall and 7-15 on the road.
Predictions: SU Winner – TOR, O/U – Over
Notes
Miami has won 38% (10-16) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Toronto has won 54% (14-12) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Blue Jays managed to give up five walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Marlins who are coming in with a 6-2 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they are outhit, the Blue Jays are 3-22. The Marlins have a 3-21 record when opponents outhit them.
Miami ranks near the bottom of the league at 25th when it comes to home runs, hitting 42 this season. Toronto ranks in the top five at fourth with 69.
Toronto and Miami both rank in the top five of the league in hits. Toronto sits at third with 8.84 hits per game and Miami ranks fourth with 9.02.
Ranking 21st, Miami is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.687). Toronto ranks in the top five at second with an OPS of .773.
The Marlins are 11-19 in games where they allow one or more home runs. The Blue Jays are 16-23 when they allow at least one homer.
