Mark Buehrle (11-5, 3.32 ERA) and Kyle Gibson (8-8, 3.37 ERA) take the hill in the last of a four-game series between the Toronto Blue Jays (57-52) and the Minnesota Twins (54-53) at the Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays won the last game 9-7 and Toronto can finish out the series sweep with a win in this game. Action begins at 7:07 p.m. ET on Thursday, Aug. 6 and can be seen on FSN and RSN.
Buehrle pitched 7.0 innings in his last outing, surrendering three runs (one unearned) and striking out three in a 7-6 defeat to the Royals. Josh Donaldson (.292, 77 Rs, 29 HRs, 80 RBIs, 3 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday with two runs, one home run, and two RBIs. Gibson went 7.0 innings, surrendering two runs, striking out four and walking one in a 3-2 defeat to the Mariners in his most recent start. Trevor Plouffe (.253, 50 Rs, 14 HRs, 57 RBIs, 2 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday with two RBIs.
This one isn’t expected to be close when Toronto, a substantial -180 favorite, takes on Minnesota. The matchup has an estimated Over/Under (O/U) of eight runs. Though the Blue Jays have had a tough season in terms of their overall money line (-189), they have done fairly well as a favorite with a record of 41-24. Toronto is an impressive 7-3 as the favorite over its last 10 games. The Blue Jays have no trouble scoring as they lead the AL in offense with 5.3 runs per game. The Blue Jays are one of the best in the AL in terms of hits with an impressive 8.9 per game. Toronto leads the whole AL in walks at home, earning an average of 3.6 per game. As for the pitchers, opposing offenses that come to the Rogers Centre have been stifled by the Blue Jays, who have a team ERA of only 3.33 at home. The Blue Jays are the second-best team in the AL at limiting hits during home games, allowing only 7.7 hits per game to their opponents this season.
In games where it is the underdog, Minnesota has a 42-44 record and an overall money line of +1,144. They have been on a bit of a dry streak over their last 10 games. They managed a 0-7 record when playing as the underdog. The Twins allow 4.3 runs per game, but have damaged those numbers in the past 10 games, allowing 5.9 runs per game during that span.
The Blue Jays lead the season series, 4-2. The Blue Jays have a 42-41 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Gibson takes the mound. Buehrle (LHP) will be on the hill against the Twins, who have a 21-17 record against left-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – Tor, O/U – Over
Notes
Toronto is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games.
Toronto is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home.
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Toronto’s last 12 games at home.
Toronto is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota.
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Toronto’s last 11 games when playing at home against Minnesota.
Toronto is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games when playing at home against Minnesota.
Minnesota has won 46% (17-20) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Toronto has won 57% (29-22) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Twins managed to give up six walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Blue Jays who are heading in with a 15-2 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they are outhit, the Twins are 9-46. The Blue Jays have a 9-41 record when opponents outhit them.
Minnesota ranks near the bottom of the league at 21st when it comes to home runs, hitting 92 this season. Toronto ranks in the top five at second with 146.
Ranking 11th, Minnesota is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 8.27 per game. Toronto ranks in the top five at fourth with 8.86.
Toronto ranks at the top of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage of .780. Minnesota ranks in the bottom half at 20th with an OPS of .698.
The Twins are 30-41 when they allow at least one home run. The Blue Jays perform similarly when they allow one or more homers with a 32-37 record.
