In their first of four head-to-head meetings this season, the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Detroit Red Wings face off at Little Caesars Arena for an Original Six tilt. Fox Sports Detroit will broadcast the game, which gets underway at 7:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, October 11.
Toronto Maple Leafs at Detroit Red Wings Odds
Toronto is 3-1 straight up (SU) and has netted 0.1 units for moneyline bettors this year. That SU winning percentage, ranked third in the league so far this season, isn’t too far off from to what the team produced during last year’s regular season (49-33). This 2018-19 Maple Leafs team is 2-0 SU on the road.
The Maple Leafs have impressively scored on 50.0 percent of their power play chances thus far. That’s a noticeable improvement from last season, when they were ranked second in the NHL by scoring on 25.0 percent of their extra-man advantages. Their penalty kill has held firm since last year, as they’ve gone from successfully defending 80.2 percent of opponents’ power plays (ranked 16th overall last season) to 80.0 percent this year.
For the team as a whole, the Leafs have been penalized just 2.3 times per game in the 2018-19 season. Last year, that number was the second-lowest mark in the league at 3.3 penalties per game. After serving an average of 7.2 penalty minutes per game a year ago, the team’s had to kill penalties for just 5.0 minutes per outing this season.
With a .892 save percentage and 27.7 saves per game, Frederik Andersen (2-1) has been the top option in goal for Toronto this year. If head coach Mike Babcock chooses to rest him, however, the team could go with Garret Sparks (1-0 record, .806 save percentage, 5.97 goals against average).
Morgan Rielly and Auston Matthews will both spearhead the attack for the visiting Maple Leafs. Rielly (10 points) is up to two goals and eight assists this season while Matthews has seven goals and three assists to his credit through the early stages of the regular season.
Detroit is 0-3 straight up (SU) and has lost 3.0 units for moneyline bettors this year. Through three regular season contests, two of its games have gone under the total, while one has gone over and none have pushed.
The Red Wings have converted on 33.3 percent of their power plays this year after scoring on 17.5 percent (ranked 23rd in league) last season. They have killed off a remarkable 91.7 percent of all penalties, a few points up from the 77.6 percent they posted a year ago (when they were ranked 23rd overall).
Red Wings players have been sent to the penalty box 5.0 times per game this season, a number that’s climbed noticeably from the 3.7 penalties per game given up last year. After serving an average of 9.0 penalty minutes per game a season ago the team has had to kill penalties for a whopping 14.3 minutes per contest this year.
The winless Jimmy Howard (30.5 saves per game) has been the top selection in goal for the Red Wings. Howard has zero wins, two losses, and two overtime losses and has maintained a .924 save percentage and 2.36 goals against average this year.
The Wings offense will be led by Dylan Larkin (one goal, two assists) and Dennis Cholowski (one goals, two assists).
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Detroit Red Wings Betting Predictions
Prediction: SU Winner – Maple Leafs, O/U – Over
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Notes
Betting Notes
The Red Wings are 0-2 SU in games where they serve more penalty minutes than their opponent while the Maple Leafs are 2-0 SU when they serve more minutes than their opponent.
After winning five of their six shootouts last year, the Red Wings are off to a 0-1 start in shootouts this season. Toronto was 7-2 in shootouts last year and has yet to participate in one this time around.
Toronto might have an advantage if it’s a tight one late. The team’s 2-0 in one-goal games, while Detroit is 0-2 in such games.
Detroit has given up 3.3 goals per game (while scoring just 2.0 per contest) over its three-game losing skid.
Detroit’s skaters recorded 6.1 takeaways per game and allowed 10.5 giveaways per contest.
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