The Toronto Raptors (12-3) travel to Boston to take on the Celtics (8-6) in a matchup that pits great offense against exceptional defense. The game starts at 7 p.m. ET on Friday, November 16, 2018, and will air on ESPN.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 214 points with Boston opening as a 1.5-point favorite.
Toronto Raptors vs. Boston Celtics ATS Prediction
The Raptors were unable to cover as 9.5-point favorites in their 106-104 loss to the Detroit Pistons in their last matchup. The game’s combined points (210) finished under the O/U total of 221.5. Detroit’s 14.7 turnover percentage was their largest advantage over Toronto, who had a rate of 16.7. The Pistons’ mark was worse than their season average of 11.8, while the Raptors’ was above their season average of 11.8. Kawhi Leonard led Toronto in scoring with 26 points on 10-for-18 shooting.
In the Celtics’ previous outing, they dismantled the Chicago Bulls, 111-82, easily covering as 13-point favorites. The game’s total points (193) finished well under the projected point total of 212.5. The Celtics forced 22 turnovers and had an effective field goal percentage of 0.550 (above their season average of 0.500). With 17 points, seven assists and six rebounds, Boston’s Kyrie Irving had a good outing.
This will be the second game of the season between these two teams. In the first, Leonard scored a game-high 31 points and the Raptors beat the Celtics 113-101, covering as 3-point favorites. He also had 10 rebounds. The game finished with a total of 214 points, which was just 4.5 points above the projected point total of 209.5 points. The Raptors made 14 of their 19 free throws (73.7 percent) and had a better effective field goal percentage (0.538 vs. 0.475).
Toronto heads into the game with records of 12-3 straight up (SU) and 8-7 against the spread (ATS). Of the Raptors’ 15 games, 10 have finished over the projected point total.
Meanwhile, Boston is 8-6 SU and 5-9 ATS. Unlike Toronto, games involving the Celtics have typically finished under the projected point total (57.1 percent).
Pascal Siakam has averaged 19.6 points and 5.8 rebounds over the last five games for Toronto.
Boston might struggle to put up points as they face off against one of the NBA’s best defenses. Toronto ranks sixth in defensive efficiency, while the Celtics rank 23rd in offensive efficiency. Moreover, the Raptors, who rank 22nd in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.190), could struggle to get to the line against the Celtics, who rank fifth in opponents’ FTA rate (0.181).
Toronto Raptors vs. Boston Celtics Free Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – Raptors, ATS Winner – Raptors, O/U – Over
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Notes
Betting Notes:
Toronto is 4-2 ATS on the road with 3 overs and 3 unders.
At home, Boston is 3-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Toronto is 1-0 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while Boston is 4-1.
In games where they reach the century mark, the Raptors are 12-3 and the Celtics are 8-4.
Toronto ranks fifth in points in the paint per game (53.6) while Boston ranks last (37.6).
The Celtics rank third in assists allowed per game (21.8) while the Raptors rank 20th (24.0).
Boston ranks fourth in fast break points allowed per game (11.3) while Toronto ranks 19th (15.1).
The Raptors rank 10th in rebounds per game (46.7) while the Celtics rank 25th in rebounds allowed per game (47.9).
Toronto ranks 14th in second chance points per game (13.3) while Boston ranks 25th (10.9).
The Celtics rank first in points off turnovers allowed per game (13.5) while the Raptors rank 11th (16.5).
Toronto averages 33.6 three pointers per game, which ranks eighth in the league. Boston ranks 17th in three pointers allowed per game (32.1).
The Celtics rank first in blocks allowed per game (3.4) while the Raptors rank seventh (4.8).
Boston ranks second in steals allowed per game (6.4) while Toronto ranks sixth (6.9).
Bettings Trends:
Over its last five contests, Toronto is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Boston is 1-4 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over its last five games.
The Raptors’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 4.0, down from 7.3 for the season.
During their last five games, the Celtics have scored an average of 108.6 points per game (3.0 above their season average) and allowed an average of 105.8 points per game (3.9 above their season average).
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