The Milwaukee Bucks (20-16) meet the Toronto Raptors (26-10) at BMO Harris Bradley Center. The game starts at 8 p.m. ET on Friday, January 5, 2018, and will air on TSN2 Toronto.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 216.5 points with Toronto opening as a 1-point favorite.
Toronto Raptors vs. Milwaukee Bucks ATS Prediction
The Raptors will be hoping for a similar outcome after topping the Chicago Bulls in their last contest, 124-115. The Raptors knocked down 19 of their 19 free throws (100.0 percent) and had a turnover percentage of 9.9 (better than their season average of 12.1). Delon Wright was a key piece for Toronto with 25 points, 13 rebounds and five assists.
In the Bucks’ last game, they won big over the Indiana Pacers, 122-101. Milwaukee was effective at getting and making free throws. The Bucks made 25 of their 28 free throws (89.3 percent), while the Pacers were 16-19 (84.2 percent). Giannis Antetokounmpo was the top scorer from either team with 31 points on 12-for-18 shooting.
The aggressive Milwaukee offense could be getting to the free throw line a lot in this showdown. The Bucks rank eighth in the league with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.217, while Toronto is among the league’s most foul-prone squads (giving up a 26th-ranked FTA rate of 0.215). Also, the fourth-ranked offense of the Raptors (offensive efficiency of 111.1) will try to exploit the 23rd-ranked defense of the Bucks (defensive efficiency of 108.0).
Toronto holds records of 26-10 straight up (SU) and 21-15 against the spread (ATS). Raptors games have no tendency in regards to the total, as there has been an even split between games finishing over and under.
Meanwhile, Milwaukee is 20-16 SU and 17-14-5 ATS. Of the Bucks’ 36 games, 23 have finished over the total.
This will be the second game of the season between these two teams. DeMar DeRozan scored a game-high 52 points in the first game, in which the Raptors beat the Bucks 131-127 but were not able to cover as 6-point favorites. He also recorded eight assists and five rebounds. The game finished with a total of 258 points, which was 44.5 points above the projected point total of 213.5 points. The Raptors had a better turnover percentage (10.2 vs. 11.7) and had a better free throw rate (0.297 vs. 0.280).
Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Raptors, ATS Winner – Raptors, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
Toronto is 12-9 ATS on the road with 11 unders and 10 overs.
At home, Milwaukee is 8-8-3 ATS with 11 overs, 7 unders and 1 push.
In games where they hold opponents below 100 points, Toronto is 11-3 and Milwaukee is 8-2.
The Raptors are 25-5 when they score above 100 points, while the Bucks are 16-10.
Toronto ranks fifth in three pointers attempted per game (32.1) while Milwaukee ranks 25th (24.7).
The Bucks rank first in fast break points allowed per game (7.2) while the Raptors rank 21st (12.2).
Milwaukee ranks first in blocks allowed per game (3.7) while Toronto ranks 18th (4.9).
The Bucks rank 11th in second chance points allowed per game (12.0) while the Raptors rank 26th (13.5).
Milwaukee ranks sixth in points in the paint per game (47.4) while Toronto ranks 19th in points allowed in the paint per game (44.9).
The Raptors rank 18th in rebounds per game (42.6) while the Bucks rank last (38.7).
Milwaukee ranks second in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.4) while Toronto ranks 10th (15.2).
The Bucks rank fourth in steals allowed per game (6.8) while the Raptors rank 11th (7.6).
Milwaukee averages 23.0 assists per game, which ranks ninth in the league. Toronto ranks 12th in assists allowed per game (22.3).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Toronto is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Milwaukee is 4-1 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over their last five games.
The Raptors’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 0.8, down from 7.8 for the season.
During their last five games, the Bucks have scored an average of 110.8 points per game (4.9 above their season average) and allowed an average of 107.6 points per game (1.8 above their season average).
