Toronto Raptors vs Milwaukee Bucks Eastern Conference Playoff First Round Series preview
Two months ago, this wouldn’t be much of a series, but the fortunes have turned for the Toronto Raptors and the Milwaukee Bucks, so not much separates the two teams. The Raptors are more experienced and deep, but the youth of the Bucks, and their athleticism know no boundaries.
#3 Toronto Raptors vs. #6 Milwaukee Bucks
The Raptors won the season series 3-1, a season after sweeping the Bucks in the regular season series. However, the loss in March is a clear sign that the gap between the teams is closing rapidly. The first three games were played while the Bucks still had Jabari Parker (out with an injury for the series) and Toronto haven’t yet brought in Ibaka and Tucker. The last go was without Lowry.
Regular season results:
11/25/16 MIL 99 – TOR 105
12/12/16 TOR 122 – MIL 100
01/27/17 TOR 102 – MIL 86
03/04/17 MIL 101 – TOR 94
Toronto covered in their three wins and the Bucks did so in their lone win, while three of the four games in regular season have played to unders. The Bucks shelter game from the first part of the season subsided so while the first three showed an average total points line of 211, the line has dropped to 203.5 in the last game.
In the first game of this series, the Bucks have pulled an upset by stymieing Lowry and partially DeRozan with active hands and strong interior defense. This further illustrated the issues the Raptors are having with their offense, one that played the first two months at a historic pace. On top of it, the Raptors couldn’t stop Antetokounmpo, whose drives to the basket generated much of the Bucks offense. The favorites were a step slow and showed no determination to avoid this series dragging on and repeat the last year postseason struggles.
Playoff results and schedule:
Game 1 – MIL 97 @ TOR 83 – (4/15/17, Saturday)
Game 2 – MIL @ TOR (Tuesday 4/18/17, 7:00 PM ET – NBATV )
Game 3 – TOR @ MIL (Thursday 4/20/17, 8:00 PM ET – NBATV)
Game 4 – TOR @ MIL (Saturday 4/22/17, 3:00 PM ET – TNT)
Game 5 – MIL @ TOR (Monday 4/24/17, 7:00 PM ET – IF NEEDED)
Game 6 – TOR @ MIL (Thursday 4/27/17 – IF NEEDED)
Game 7 – MIL @ TOR (Saturday 4/29/17 – IF NEEDED)
Raptors in the rearview mirror
By the end of the 2016, the Toronto Raptors have had second best offense in the league, marginally trailing only the Warriors. They’ve been doing it with 4 guys too, as they had no starting power forward, at least none that would matter. Lowry was playing the best ball of his career and DeRozan’s new, more versatile offensive game was beautiful to watch.
Valanciunas also made strides and the bench did their part. After a so-so period till the All-Star break, during which the lack of contributors in the second unit was blamed for the drop, the Raptors were set to raise the stake by acquiring more talent, luring Serge Ibaka and P.J. Tucker during the week of festivities. Unfortunately, in the very last game before the break, Lowry broke his wrist and the Raptors season has not been the same ever since.
He returned to play in some April games to prepare for the playoffs, but he didn’t look good and there was not enough time to build the chemistry with the newly acquired players, both of whom are now starting for the Raptors. The offense has become stagnant, reliant on DeRozan’s isolation and futile efforts of Lowry to make something out of nothing. Ibaka’s arrival hurt Valanciunas confidence and Carroll has been dropped from the starting lineup in favor of feisty, but limited Tucker.
Toronto Raptors Betting Trends:
ATS Score: 45-37-1
Over/under Score: 44-39
Bucks in the rearview mirror
The Bucks have had up and down season, trying to figure out who to play and having surplus in some positions and needs in others. This was supposed to be a break out year for the young Bucks, right until their top guy Middleton suffered an offseason knee injury that cost him several months. It did wonders for Antetokounmpo’s development as he became the unrivaled main guy, the point-forward of the Kidd’s ever-changing offense.
Three different guys started at the center, before a fourth guy was chosen for the job and the Bucks went back and forth between Brogdon and Dellavedova at the point. They also changed the roles of journeyman shooters Teletovic and Beasley, especially after Parker went down again with an injury.
Backup center Monroe went from a daily rumor subject to a valuable option on offense and the Bucks learned to play actual defense and not just try to go for steals. It’s a process and they still aren’t near the finish, but are going in right direction.
Milwaukee Bucks Betting Trends:
ATS Score: 37-46
Over/under Score: 41-40-2
Matching them up
While the Raptors have more talent overall, the best player of the series is playing for the Milwaukee Bucks. Antetokounmpo creates matchup problems against most teams with his athleticism and length, so Toronto will look to stop him first and think about others later. They can throw Tucker, Carroll and possibly Ibaka on him, depending on the other matchups, in hope to make him shoot jumpers as much as possible.
Their stars, Lowry and DeRozan are a bit undersized compared to the Bucks backcourt, but Canada’s only team has a significant size advantage in the front with Ibaka and Valanciunas. They need to make sure to exploit this advantage and don’t allow the Bucks to get away with the small ball.
Series prediction
Toronto in 7. Not much separates East teams, as evidenced by the regular season. The Raptors are better, more complete team that will use the playoff experience to their advantage, but they’ll need maximum effort to dispose Milwaukee. Kidd is not afraid to change things up and is becoming a master of creating mismatches, so even if the Raptors figure out how to play this version of the Bucks, he’ll come up with a new plan.
Still, the Bucks are too limited offensively to compete with the Raptors. It’s all well until the Raptors make consecutive threes to create separation. The Milwaukee Bucks will need their outside shooters to be extremely efficient for the entire series to advance.
Series MVP
Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Greek Freak is already among top 10 players in the league, plays both ways and is a leader-by-example. He needs to stay on the court for the Milwaukee Bucks and avoid getting into a foul trouble, but if he does so, he’ll undoubtedly be the main figure of the series.
X-factor
Tony Snell. The mild mannered Bucks wing is not a player who will awe you on any given night, but has become an important piece to the Bucks puzzle by playing both sides of the ball. He’ll have to contain one of the premier scorers in the league, DeRozan, while also keep his composure and hit his spot up threes. If he does his job like the way he did in the first game, the Bucks might just get an edge.
