It is already week five of the EPL and the action just keeps on getting hotter and more exciting. In this preview, we will feature two clubs that have been quite underperforming based on their own standards. On one end, we have a club that is finding it hard to clinch a win in a location they are forced to play on while their new stadium gets put up. On the other, we have a side that is looking for stability after undergoing a state of flux last season, which almost caused them to be relegated if not for a crucial manager change that prevented them from sliding further down the table. Tottenham Hotspur FC will try once more to clinch a win at the Wembley Stadium this Saturday as they go up against Swansea City AFC.
TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR FC vs. SWANSEA CITY AFC
3-Way: 1:Tottenham Hotspur -312; X: +600 Draw; 2: Swansea City +1525
Spread -1.5: Tottenham Hotspur -133; Swansea City +131
Total +3: Over -106; Under +104
TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR FC
Tottenham Hotspur will try once again to win at Wembley Stadium, something they already managed to do in the UEFA Champions League by beating Borussia Dortmund, 3:1, in the past midweek, but not in the Premier League. Last time they had an EPL match in their temporary home field, it concluded as a 1:1 draw against Burnley. At least they are getting there. Maybe this time they can get the W.
Tottenham is fifth in the league table with seven points (two wins, one draw, one loss), winning their last fixture, which was away against Everton, 3:0, their best result to date. That victory gave them a +4 GD, enough to place them above other teams with seven points (Huddersfield Town, Burnley, Liverpool, West Bromwich Albion).
They average 1.75 goals per match in the league, conceding 0.75 goals per game. They have two clean sheets in domestic play. Their league form is WDLWW, which includes a 7:1 shelling from last season of already relegated Hull City. Including all competitions, they are WWDLW.
Both Dele Alli and Harry Kane have two PL goals, while Christian Eriksen has two assists. Alli supplied a goal and an assist when the two teams last met in April. Kane had a double against Everton, making him the 17th player to score 100 goals for the club. He hit his century in 169 appearances in all competitions, including 80 goals in just 117 Premier League matches, an incredible pace considering he has not scored a goal in August. His brace against his squad’s German opponents took his tally up to 14 goals in European competition (ten at the UEFA Europa League, four at the Champions League). He leapfrogged Mark Falco, Alan Gilzean, and Martin Peters, placing him third in Tottenham’s all-time top European goalscorers list behind Martin Chivers (22) and Jermain Defoe (23). With two goals over the international break, Kane has six goals in his last four matches for club and country.
In addition, the English forward scored twice in the home fixture against the Swans last season, leading to a 5:0 win. He also ranks top for shots (28) and shots inside the box (21) after the first four EPL gameweeks. Eriksen, meanwhile, has six goals and four assists in seven PL matches versus the Swans, as well as more goal involvements (ten) than against any other side. He fired a brace in the home fixture in 2016-17. Alli missed Wednesday’s European match through suspension (and will continue to miss two more). He should be fully refreshed for Saturday’s fixture. He has surpassed Eriksen (seven to four) for shots on goal and matched him for chances created (six) in home matches. Jan Vertonghen and Toby Alderweireld are the two top passers of the club, both having completed over 300 passes in league matches.
However, the attention this weekend will be on Fernando Llorente, who will face his old club. Swansea’s leading goalscorer last season with 15 goals, was being wooed by Chelsea starting in the winter transfer window last term, a chance to reunite with former Juventus manager Antonio Conte, but decided to go to North London to beat this summer’s deadline instead. He debuted this midweek against Dortmund, making his return from a cycling mishap that caused him to miss the season opener with an arm fracture.
Aside from Llorente, Tottenham also nabbed defender Serge Aurier from Paris Saint-Germain for 23 million GBP, an able replacement for Kyle Walker. However, them acting late in the window failed them a chance to land a big name signing, which might turn out to be costly down the road once competition gets tighter.
SWANSEA CITY AFC
Swansea City is a club that cannot get their rhythm going. After advancing to the third round of the EFL Cup by routing MK Dons, 4:0, and beating Crystal Palace, 2:0, they lost to Newcastle United, 0:1, in the resumption of league action after the international break, giving them four points, the same as Brighton and Everton, in four matches (one win, one draw, two losses), slotting them at 15th on the table.
Having a negative goal difference, they only average 0.5 goals per EPL match, while conceding 1.25 goals themselves. Their worst defeat in the league so far is their 0:4 shutout against Manchester United. Despite that, they managed to have two clean sheets in the league. Their league form is LWLDW, which includes a 2:1 win at home against West Brom to close out their EPL season. Counting their victory over MK Dons, their form is LWWLD.
Tammy Abraham has one league goal and one at the Carabao Cup. His goal scoring would be the meal ticket not just for himself, but for his manager and club as well, which had new majority owners Jason Levien and Steve Kaplan jumping in during last term. Jordan Ayew and Leroy Fer both have two goals for the season and 11 tackles in the league. Usually playing at the flanks, Luciano Narsingh is adjusting to his new role as central attacking midfielder. Getting 13 league apps last season, he has been sent in twice as a substitute. Erwin Mulder, a transferee from SC Heerenveen, is the only goalkeeper in the first team that has not had an appearance yet. Wilfried Bony, Renato Sanches, Sam Clucas, and Roque Mesa have played at least one PL match this term.
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Swansea City AFC Match Prediction
Tottenham Hotspur has never lost to Swansea City in the EPL, winning ten of 12 meetings while drawing the other two. Of all teams the Spurs have faced more than ten times at the EPL, their highest win rate (83.3%) and goals per match average (2.33) is against Swansea. Tottenham scored eight goals off their opponents last season. This match also pits the club with the most shots this season (Tottenham, 79) versus the side to have attempted the fewest (Swansea City, 26). The latter has also conceded 78 shots and ten big chances, the most among all 20 clubs.
As much as Swansea manager Paul Clement is anxious to play in England’s national stadium, his ward’s opponents are just as wary playing there. Nevertheless, all Tottenham had to do was break the so-called “Wembley curse”, which they did so during the week, to get out of their rut and create the intertia that they need.
A perceived advantage the Swans have on their opponents is that they are well-rested, with the Spurs playing just a few days ago. But this should not be much of a factor this early in the term.
The game of football is hard to predict, which is what makes this a fun endeavor. Even if Tottenham have a distinct edge, the Liberty club can still spring a surprise, as we have witnessed in some of the results the past few weeks. Nothing is a sure thing, but you can go for something that is quite obvious and take the AH on the hosts.
My pick: Totteham Hotspur -1.5 AH (-133)
