The NHL Trade Deadline is a stressful time. It’s actually pretty funny to consider that the biggest trades of this year did not actually come on deadline day: Hagelin for Perron, Johansen for Jones, Staal for what few remaining draft picks the Rangers had left. As another deadline day has come and gone, let’s analyze the winners and losers.
The Winners
CAR: Hurricanes add Aleksi Saarela, Anthony Camara, Valentin Zykov, two 2nd-rounders, 3rd-rounder, 5th-rounder, conditional 5th-rounder; lose John-Michael Liles, Eric Staal, Kris Versteeg.
To clear up the mess that is the Carolina Hurricanes’ transaction page: they have 13 picks in the first three rounds in the next two drafts. That is an incredible haul. They will be retaining half of Eric Staal’s remaining salary, but now they have tons of money to spend and a whole reservoir of prospects to choose from. I’ll touch on Saarela in a bit, but Valentin Zykov is a solid pickup as well. He has a sniper’s touch, as he was one of the top forwards in his time in the QMJHL. The 20-year-old has a pretty bright future in front of him.
The Hurricanes recognized what they were, a fringe playoff team at best, and decided to rebuild all the way, no half-measures. Good on them for being self-aware. Now it’s on their scouting team to bring it on home.
CHI: Blackhawks add Andrew Ladd, Dale Weise, Tomas Fleischmann, Christian Erhoff; lose Marko Dano, Phillip Danault, Rob Scuderi, 1st-rounder, 2nd-rounder.
The Blackhawks have once again pulled off salary cap jiu jitsu, adding some very valuable depth scoring pieces. For the second year in a row, Chicago has plucked one of the top forwards from the trade market in reuniting with Andrew Ladd. While their trade for Antoine Vermette last year was an abject failure in the regular season, he did score some of the most crucial goals of their Stanley Cup run. Ladd, who already has a Cup with Chicago, is back for more.
Dale Weise is in the midst of a career year scoring-wise. He has a personal-best 14 goals under his belt this season, with 12 assists. He needs three more points to tie his career-high of 29, which was set last season. He is a hard-nosed player who will be a welcome addition to the Hawks’ bottom six.
Ladd will be skating on the top line with Jonathan Toews and Andrew Shaw. Marian Hossa will presumably take Shaw’s place when he is back from injury. Tomas Fleischmann is on the third line with Teuvo Teravainen and Andrew Desjardins.
Chicago need not plan for the future. They are yet again an odds-on favorite to win the Stanley Cup this year. Their moves at the deadline only make them scarier.
The Losers
COL: Avalanche add Mikkel Boedker, Eric Gelinas; lose Alex Tanguay, Conner Bleackley, Kyle Wood, 3rd-rounder
Colorado is a terrible possession team. In fact, they are the worst possession team in the National Hockey League, as they have a mere 43.8% team Corsi rating. That’s not just dead last, that’s not even close to the next worst team (46.6%). Instead of addressing this problem, they added a powerplay specialist who is equally terrible at even strength and a defenseman who is incredibly sheltered and even still has not really been able to score.
First, let’s look at the Boedker deal. Boedker has 18 powerplay points this season. Colorado is right in the middle of the pack in powerplay percentage, comfortably at 14th best in the league at 19.1%. While it was not essential to add that kind of player, it does not hurt if he is not too much of a detriment.
This is Mikkel Boedker’s production at 5v5 compared to Alex Tanguay’s. Yikers. Tanguay is no prize at even strength, but at the very least he is a way better generator of offense than Boedker.
Next, Eric Gelinas. Taking a flyer on a young defenseman is fine when you’re trying to build up for future years. If they’re going to be relying on him to actually contribute to furthering a playoff run? That’s not going to end well. Gelinas has but one well-noted attribute to him, his shot. It’s very hard and pretty accurate. He is also a pretty weak skater, a mediocre passer, and is only a positive possession player by seeing incredibly sheltered minutes that are almost exclusively in the offensive zone.
He had seven goals and 22 assists in his first 60 games as a rookie. Last year, he had six goals and 13 assists in 61 games. This season, he has just one goal and five assists in 34 games, with only two assists coming at even strength.
It is entire possible that this is a confidence game and Gelinas can finally start to develop now that he is out of the doghouse. But his ceiling looks to be that of a poor man’s Michael Del Zotto. Either Colorado knows that they are going to be smacked out of the playoffs when they play the top seed and they don’t care, or they view a playoff berth more as an added bonus and are still prepping for the future. It’s still unclear into which camp they fall into.
DAL: Stars acquire Kris Russell, Flames acquire Jyrki Jokipakka, Brett Pollock, and a conditional 2nd-rounder.
A disclaimer- the 2nd-round pick in this year’s draft becomes a 1st-rounder if the Stars happen to make the Western Conference Final, which is entirely possible, especially if they manage to secure the top seed in the Central Division.
Kris Russell is a hard-hitting, shot-blocking defenseman. He is objectively a bad hockey player. Being a hard-hitting shot blocker does not a shutdown defender make.
Dave Tippett, coach of the Arizona Coyotes, summed it up pretty nicely after a loss to the Penguins (per Seth Rorabaugh of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette):
“I don’t know how many hits we ended up with, probably 35 hits [46 actually]. Guys are running around trying but that just means guys are late on things and you don’t have the puck. That’s artificial energy.”
Russell gets about 20 minutes of ice time a night and has a Corsi of 43.6% at even strength. That marks the best possession figures he’s had since joining Calgary in 2013-2014. Read that again. That’s the best he’s done in three years.
“But surely toughness and shot blocking counts for something,” you may be saying to yourself. “Sure he has terrible possession numbers but he’s playing almost 25 minutes a night, it’s bound to happen.”
From Scott Cullen on Twitter (@tsnscottcullen): “You know what makes for sound analysis? Appealing to authority time after time after time.”
Maybe, just maybe, Calgary grossly misjudged his ability to play those minutes and they totally stole away a good draft pick, a talented scorer in Pollock who is lighting up the WHL, and a young defenseman with promise in Jokipakka. Russell, who has one goal in his last nine games, is only going to slow the Stars down.
The Make-or-Breaks
NYR: Rangers acquire Eric Staal, Hurricanes acquire Aleksi Saarela and two 2nd-rounders.
This was certainly the biggest name moved these past few days, with not much competition. Eric Staal finished up with 10 goals and 23 assists in 63 games this season in Carolina. His 11+ seasons in Carolina produced a Stanley Cup victory back in 2006, but he has not seen the postseason since 2008-2009. Staal’s possession numbers are stellar, however, as he has a 56.7% Corsi rating this season with a 57.2% Corsi last year.
The Rangers parted with one of the few legitimate prospects they have left in the pool in Aleksi Saarela, who made a name for himself on Team Finland at the World Juniors. Saarela was a point-per-game player in the Juniors tournament, and has 19 goals and 13 assists in 47 games in Liiga. He is sixth all-time in U19 goal scoring there.
This trade’s success essentially boils down to how the Rangers are going to manage their assets. Staal will certainly aid the offense in Rick Nash’s absence, not knowing how long that will last. If and when Nash does come back, the Rangers’ lineup would ideally look like:
Nash-Brassard-Zuccarello
Kreider-Stepan-Miller
Lindberg-Hayes-Staal
Stalberg-Moore-Fast
That’s not bad at all. In fact, I daresay that would be a tremendously well-rounded lineup, with four strong possession lines that are all dangerous in the offensive zone. However, that would involve Alain Vigneault forcing Tanner Glass out of the lineup, which he is unwilling to do. So that means a revolving door of players like Oscar Lindberg, Viktor Stalberg and Jesper Fast sitting for no good reason. One simple lineup decision affects the entire bottom six.
Other than managing assets, the New York is going to be judged on one thing: winning the Cup. If they win the Cup, then I guess the trade was worth it. If they fail to win yet again, not only are they going to have lost a ton of their prospects and draft picks for players who will be walking over the summer for nothing (Keith Yandle, Eric Staal), they are going to be in Salary Cap Hell with unmovable contracts like Dan Girardi and Marc Staal tying up negotiations for retaining younger players like Chris Kreider, Kevin Hayes and J.T. Miller.
This is an all-or-nothing year for the Rangers. If they fail to win the Cup, there will be chaos.
Bruins add Lee Stempniak, John-Michael Liles; lose Anthony Carmana, 2nd-rounder, 3rd-rounder, 4th-rounder, 5th-rounder.
There was a lot of speculation that Loui Eriksson may be moved at the deadline. Boston looked like they were going to pass through deadline day without any transactions, before they finally pulled the trigger on sending some picks out in exchange for some very solid depth rentals.
Lee Stempniak was swapped for the 2nd- and 4th-rounders. Stempniak, who is now on his sixth team in three seasons, led the Devils in scoring in his time in New Jersey, tallying 16 goals and 25 assists. He is an intriguing player in that his above-average skill set as a possession depth forward with a scoring touch makes him very movable, yet he has not been locked down to a multi-year deal. The New York Rangers gave him away like a coat at the Salvation Army last season at the deadline, sending him to Winnipeg for now-KHLer Carl Klingberg.
John-Michael Liles is a fine bottom-pairing defenseman, with six goals and nine assists on the year. He frequently takes on some difficult minutes and still produces positive possession numbers.
These are very savvy moves, and they will certainly help Boston in the immediate as they march towards the postseason. They will have to justify losing four draft picks and a prospect and a rental with some winning, however. They should be fighting like mad to get a divisional spot as opposed to the Wild Card. They may want to clear some space to retain their new assets, as well. Chalk the deadline up as a win, if they can fend off the Penguins and even the Red Wings.
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