The USC Trojans will march into the Rose Bowl on Saturday, November 19th to face the UCLA Bruins in their annual in-state rivalry. The game is slated to begin at 10:30 p.m. ET and can been seen on the ESPN Network. Heading into this PAC-12 contest, the Trojans are -13.5 point favorites and the over/under is penciled in at 52.5.
USC and UCLA have played each other 85 times in this revved-up rivalry game. It’s the Trojans that hold the all-time series lead, 45-31-7. Two of USC’s victories were taken away with the Reggie Bush debacle, but last year’s match-up wasn’t. The Trojans took down the Bruins in Los Angeles, 40-21.
#13 USC (7-3):
The college football world has to give coach Clay Helton his due. The decision to bench Max Browne and start Sam Darnold has turned the Trojan’s season around. USC is 6-1 since the red-shirt freshman quarterback took over the reigns, and is currently riding a six-game winning streak. Not to mention, the 26-13 upset over the Huskies on the road last week.
Sam Darnold has been making all the right moves since replacing Max Browne a few games into the season. The freshman has connected on 169 passes for over 2,100 yards with 22 touchdowns and just six interceptions.
Balance has also been the key for the Trojan’s offensive attack this year. Three USC tail backs are doing more than their share to make that happen. Combined, they have scampered for 272 carries for over 1,600 yards and 12 scores. Ronald Jones leads this trio with 772 yards and eight end zone appearances.
Sam Darnold has been spreading the ball around pretty nicely to his talented wide outs since taking over. Four pass catchers have reeled-in almost 155 balls for over 1,700 yards and 16 touchdowns. Since the change, receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster has came to life, totaling 682 yards and eight scores.
Adoree’ Jackson picked off Jake Browning twice last Saturday, and leads the nation’s 31st unit in total defense. The Trojans are also solid against the run, surrendering only 139.5 yards per game, which is good for 37th in the nation.
UCLA (4-6):
Young quarterback Mike Fafaul has been asked to throw the ball around quite a bit since he stepped in for Drew Rosen. That’s exactly what he did once again in last week’s contest against the Beavers. Fafaul completed 25-of-47 passes for 281 yards and an interception. Since he has been in the line-up, Fafaul has completed over 100 passes for 1,245 yards with nine touchdowns and 10 interceptions.
Running the football in 2016 has been an adventure for the UCLA Bruins. Nobody has stepped-up and took control of the ground game. The Bruins numbers are paltry at best, tallying just over 700 yards and seven scores.
Five wide receivers pitch-in to try to get the UCLA passing game going. Obviously nobody they face is afraid of the run, so they put up these numbers against loaded secondaries. The foursome has caught almost 130 balls for over 1,800 yards and 14 touchdowns.
The Bruins do field an above average defense, that has done their part to keep games within reason. UCLA is 25th in the country against the pass, yielding to only 195.8 yards per contest. They also are 26th in the country in total defense, allowing only 356 yards a game.
Trends and Notes:
The Trojans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
The Bruins are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games.
The Under is 6-0 in the Trojans last 6 games overall.
The Over is 4-1 in Bruins last 5 home games.
The Under is 8-1-1 in the last 10 meetings.
Game Prediction:
Well it’s that time of year again for the Trojans and the Bruins. Some say you can throw the records out the window in this rivalry game, I’m really debating that fact as I write this prediction.
It’s pretty obvious that USC is the stronger more well rounded team in this match-up. They have an advantage at the quarterback spot, the running back spot and the special teams unit as well.
The only thing I can see that is even close to equal between the two programs are their defenses. So with that in mind, don’t play with fire against a double-digit home-dog in a rivalry game. Just keep it simple and play the under 52.5.
