The trip to Asia is over for the European Tour. Next up is a visit to Rabat, Morocco for the Trophee Hassan II from the Red Course at Royal Golf Dar Es Salem this week. Richie Ramsey is the defending champion at this tournament but it will have a much different feel as it takes place at a different location than it did in each of the previous five years.
Event Details
Event: Trophee Hassan II
Category: European Tour
Date: May 5-8
Location: Red Course at Royal Golf Dar Es Salem
The fact that the majority of recent winners at this tournament are listed among the favorites to win this event is testament to how different of a feel this year’s tournament should have overall. All six winners have been European since this tournament became a European Tour event but it wouldn’t be a major surprise to see that trend broken this year.
Past Five Winners
2015: Richie Ramsey -10
2014: Alejandro Canizares -19
2013: Marcel Siem -17
2012: Michael Hoey -17
2011: David Horsey -13 (Playoff)
What To Know About The Course
After five straight years at the Golf du Palais, organizers opted to move the tournament and create a lot more uncertainty for this year’s event. There were no stats recorded here in 2010 so we had to go all the way back to 2001 to find some numbers to bank on. Driving Accuracy should be the most important stat to consider as the numbers show that the top players in 2001 finished near the top of the board in that department despite the fact that they struggled in Driving Distance. It’s also worth considering a potential home advantage for players from South Africa as they should have an edge at this course where the played growing up.
The Field
Alexander Levy is the outright betting favorite to win this event at +1050 odds followed by 2014 winner Alejandro Canizares at +1050 and Gregory Bourdy at +1550 odds. Breaking down the field won’t be easy with little information to predict how they will fare at this course but we can use their recent form and important statistics including Driving Accuracy and Scrambling to help us identify a couple of winners. We don’t have any big names to work with at this event and that makes handicapping this event that much more challenging. On the flip side, if you happen to pick the right long shot, you could very well end up cashing in a big pot here.
A Good Matchup To Bet: Andrew Johnston over Alejandro Canizares
After breaking down why the results from the last five Trophee Hassan II tournaments isn’t nearly as relevant following a change in venue it will make a lot more sense that we fade the 2014 winner in this matchup. Canizares won at a different course two years ago and it was one of only two victories he has recorded in 250 starts over the last decade. Open de Espana winner Andrew Johnston played at a very high level at Valderrama and he has had a couple of weeks off to prepare for this event. This play is as much about Johnston’s recent form as it is fading Canizares with some excellent value betting this matchup.
Top Five Pick: Alexander Levy
Levy leads a relatively weak field this week and outside of the Frenchman it’s hard to find a strong pick to finish in the top-five. Bourdy, Julien Quesne and Paul Dunne are all worth consideration in this spot but Levy has been the best of this group of late and there is a reason why he is listed as the betting favorite. He should have an advantage this week and while we won’t bet him to win this tournament outright we do like him as the best bet to finish in the top-five at this week’s Trophee Hassan II.
Top 10 Odds To Win Trophee Hassan II Tournament
Alexander Levy +1050
Alejandro Canizares +1050
Gregory Bourdy +1550
Andrew Johnston +1850
Julien Quesne +1850
Romain Wattel +1850
Benjamin Hebert +2250
Dean Burmester +2250
Robert Rock +2250
Jeunghun Wang +2250
Paul Dunne +2550
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