The Georgia State Panthers (21-10, 12-6 SBC) take on the Troy Trojans (16-16, 10-9 SBC) in the Sun Belt Conference Tourney at Lakefront Arena. The game will air on ESPN 3 at 6 p.m. ET on Friday, March 9, 2018.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 146 points with Georgia State set as a 3-point favorite.
Troy Trojans vs. Georgia State Panthers Betting Prediction
The Trojans will be looking for a similar outcome after beating the South Alabama Jaguars in their last outing, 69-62. The Trojans had an absurd offensive rebounding percentage of 42.2 (above their season average of 26.6), while the Jaguars had a turnover percentage of 19.2 (above the 14.5 mark opponents have averaged against Troy this season). With 22 points on 8-for-19 shooting, Jordon Varnado was the game’s high scorer.
In the Panthers’ last game, they were victorious over the South Alabama Jaguars, 90-75. The Panthers held the Jaguars to an effective field goal percentage of 0.435 (below their season average of 0.498) and had a turnover percentage of 7.6 (better than their season average of 14.7). With 21 points and seven rebounds, D’Marcus Simonds had a good outing for Georgia State.
Georgia State could put on a ball-control clinic in this meeting. Georgia State ranks 40th in the NCAA at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 16.4 percent), while Troy forces the 71st-fewest turnovers (16.9 percent).
Troy comes into the game with records of 16-16 straight up (SU) and 13-15-1 against the spread (ATS). Trojans games have a slight tendency to finish under the total (51.7 percent).
Meanwhile, Georgia State owns records of 21-10 SU and 16-11 ATS. Of the Panthers’ 27 games that accepted bets, 17 have finished over the O/U total.
Alex Hicks has averaged 11.4 points and 10.8 rebounds over the last five games for Troy.
The Trojans have won both games against the Panthers this season, including an 83-70 victory in their last matchup. Troy covered as an 8-point underdog and the game finished with a total of 153 points, which was 8 points above the projected point total of 145 points. The Trojans made 21 of their 26 free throws (80.8 percent) and had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (30.6 vs. 14.7). Varnado had a stellar game, with 26 points and eight rebounds.
Troy Trojans vs. Georgia State Panthers Odds Pick
Basketball Pick: SU Winner – Georgia State, ATS Winner – Troy, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
Troy averages 26.2 three-pointers per game, which ranks 35th in the NCAA. Georgia State ranks 280th in three-pointers allowed per game (25.7).
The Panthers rank 45th in steals per game (7.3) while the Trojans rank 220th (4.9).
Troy ranks 104th in rebounds per game (36.3) while Georgia State ranks 237th in rebounds allowed per game (37.0).
The Trojans rank 33rd in blocks allowed per game (2.6) while the Panthers rank 122nd (3.5).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Troy is 3-1-1 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Georgia State is 2-3 ATS with 5 overs over their last five games.
The Trojans’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 3.0, up from 2.8 for the season.
During their last five games, the Panthers have scored an average of 79.6 points per game (4.1 above their season average) and allowed an average of 76.4 points per game (8.4 above their season average).
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