A pair of Sun Belt foes open up their conference slate when the Troy Trojans are on the road battling the New Mexico State Aggies Saturday night. The inner-conference game is scheduled to begin on Saturday, September 16th at 8:00 p.m. EST and can be seen on ESPN3.com. As it sits right now, the Trojans are a -7 point favorite and the contest’s total comes in at 63.
After a gritty loss on the blue turf in Boise, the Troy Trojans rebounded nicely with a 34-7 victory over Alabama State last weekend. However, they did not cover the 40 plus points that the odds makers had them favored by.
The New Mexico State Aggies staved-off a furious fourth quarter comeback against their in-state rival the New Mexico Lobos last Saturday. As a result, the Aggies came away with a 30-28 decision and now sit at .500. The Trojans have a 3-1 lead in the all-time series between the teams, including a 52-6 win at home in the last match-up on September 24, 2016.
Troy Trojans (1-1)
The Trojans rebounded from their loss to Boise State on the road as they took down FCS school Alabama State. Troy did most of it’s damage on the ground, as all five of their scores came via the rushing attack. Troy piled up a 605-165 advantage in total offense in the game, while earning a 32-14 edge in first downs.
The Trojans are tied for 54th in the nation in passing offense with 246.5 yards per contest. They also are ranked 67th in the nation, rushing for 163.5 yards per game on the ground. To their dismay, the Trojans also are tied for 95th in scoring offense with 23.5 points a ball game.
Starting quarterback Brandon Silvers has completed 49 of 73 passes for 484 yards with no touchdowns and two picks. In fact, his most recent interception was a pix-six that Alabama State scored their only touchdown on. Obviously, the Trojans need to get more production from Silvers if they hope to achieve their lofty goals in the Sun Belt Conference.
Well, running the ball certainly was not the issue for the men from Troy last weekend. As a whole, the team churned out over 250 yards on the ground averaging over seven yards per pop.
Running back Jamarius Henderson leads the Trojans with 12 carries for 144 yards plus two touchdowns. He shares time in the backfield with Jordan Chunn. Chunn also has 24 totes of the pigskin for 102 yards and three more trips to the promised land to show for his work. Together, they are an effective timeshare.
When Troy attempts to move the ball via the air attack, they look to non other than Damion Willis. Willis leads the team with nine catches for 120 yards. Running back Jordan Chunn is also a threat out of the backfield, catching 8 balls for 79 yards. Willis’ counter-part Emanuel Thompson has reeled in another eight catches for almost 60 more yards.
So far, the Trojan defense has answered the call in the first two weeks of their season. They rank 19th in the country allowing 261 total yards a game. They also are effective against the run, holding teams to only 116 yards per contest (49th). Yes, they did pad those stats a bit against Alabama State but they also fared pretty well on the road against the Broncos.
New Mexico State Aggies (1-1)
New Mexico State nearly let one get away from them against in-state rival New Mexico on the road. Fortunately for Aggie fans, they stopped a potential tying two point conversion with 1:11 to play and walked out of the game with a victory. To their credit, the offense did put up 500 yards on the Lobos.
Leading the way in that game was quarterback Tyler Rogers. Rogers has connected on 74 of 114 pass attempts for 799 yards with seven touchdowns against three interceptions. He also has added a score on the ground as well. Last week, the underrated rifleman was on fire. He completed 34 of 57 passes for over 400 yards with four touchdowns and only one interception.
When it comes time to get the hard earned yardage between the tackles, the Aggies look to Larry Rose III and Jason Huntley. Rose III leads the Aggies in rushing with 34 carries for 159 yards while Huntley adds another seven carries for 88 yards plus a touchdown to the score sheet.
Wide receiver Jaleel Scott has taken the reigns as the school’s number one wide out. This year, he has 16 catches for 240 yards and three end zone grabs. Teammates OJ Clark and Conner Cramer are also nice additions to the passing attack.
Together, the duo has combined for 17 more catches for over 120 yards and another score. Furthermore, tail back Larry Rose III is becoming a threat out of the backfield. He is second on the club, recording ten pass catches for 88 more yards and has been money on third downs for New Mexico State.
Unlike the Troy Trojans, the Aggies are still trying to figure things out on the defensive side of the football. So far, they struggle to defend the pass, allowing 287.5 yards per contest which ranks them at 105th in the country. However, Troy like to run the ball and New Mexico State’s front seven is ranked 57th in the nation allowing 127.5 yards per game.
Prediction
This football game is a complete clash of offensive styles when the Aggies look to throw their way to the win and Troy looks to run. In my opinion, quarterback Tyler Rodgers is playing better than Brandon Silvers and that bodes well for a home dog in this conference match-up.
Let’s face it, even though the Aggies are more productive in the passing game, the Trojans own the ground war. Add to that they have a better all-around defense and this has the makings of a good battle in New Mexico on Saturday.
Las Vegas has the Trojans as -7 point favorites because they are a more well-rounded team. I also think that is true. If Brandon Silvers can expose the weak secondary, they could potentially score enough to cover the seven with their athletic defense.
Line setters also have this contest at 63 points. Look, the Trojans absolutely took it to New Mexico State last year, hanging 50 plus points on them. Obviously, this is a different Aggie team that can score their fair share of points in 2017. Plus, they are in revenge mode and back at home. Give me the home dog as I buy this one up to +7.5 and stay away from what I think could easily be a low or or a high-scoring affair.
Trends
The Trojans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
The Trojans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
The Under is 9-1-1 in the Trojans last 11 conference games.
The Under is 5-1 in the Trojans last 6 games overall.
The Aggies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
The Aggies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
The Over is 16-5 in the Aggies last 21 games in September.
The Under is 3-1-1 in the Aggies last 5 conference games.
