Round 29 in German Bundesliga is on schedule this weekend and things are slowly unraveling when it comes to the final rankings. Battle for survival will probably be more interesting than the one for the title because five teams are in danger of being relegated while Bayern Munich on the top has ten points advantage over the second ranked RB Leipzig. Here, we will analyze Bayern’s next match-up as they will square off with their old rivals Bayer Leverkusen at the BayArena on Saturday. A little upset could be up ahead and we’re here to exploit that in the best way we can. Let’s take a closer look.
BAYER 04 LEVERKUSEN vs. FC BAYERN MUNICH
3-Way: 1: Bayer Leverkusen +425 ; X: +333 Draw; Bayern Munich -135
Spread +0.5: Bayer Leverkusen +135; Bayern Munich -137
Total +2.5: Over -143; Under +142
Double Chance: 1x +135; 12 -357; x2 -476
BAYER 04 LEVERKUSEN
The Bayer Leverkusen left the company of the top German soccer teams in this season. Last year they’ve finished the season ranked third and qualified for the Champions League play. This season it’s a very different story as they currently rank 12th with 35 points in 28 games. The battle for the European competitions is long lost and they are not truly without worries about the survival. They are six points above the relegation line and they have to be careful especially because they don’t have a very easy schedule in the last six rounds.
They are coming off from a 0:1 heartbreaking loss against RB Leipzig on the road, as they conceded the goal in the final minute of injury time. Leverkusen is 2-2-4 in the last eight games and they are 1-2-1 in the last four home games with two consecutive draws at the BayArena against Wolfsburg (3:3) and Werder Bremen (1:1). Record at home is 5-4-5 with 24-22 goal difference (42-44 overall) ant they rank 14th in the home league table with 19 of 32 possible points earned.
Bayer earned only three more points at home than on the road (16-19) and they scored only four goals more at home than on the road (24-20) so far and a safe presumption is that they play much better on the road than at home which is a rarity in soccer. 62% of Bayer’s home matches were over 2.5 goals and 43% of the games in front of their own crowd were over 3.5 goals in total. Most common results at home are a 2:3 loss, 3:1 win and 1:1 draw (all occurred twice so far). They have conceded at least one goal in 79% of their home matches this year.
Mexican national, Javier Hernandez Chicharito tops the team in scoring this season with 10 goals in 23 games played, while Hakan Calhanoglu and Kevin Volland have six and five goals in their accounts so far. Leading the assists stat sheet is forward Julian Brandt with six assists while Hakan Calhanoglu and Karim Bellarabi collected five each. Kevin Kampl and Wendell lead the team in passing with 1298 and 1163 total passes. Goalie Bernd Leno played every minute of 28 league games for the team so far and he collected 88 total saves with five clean sheets games.
Hakan Calhanoglu (suspended for six matches) will not be available while Lars Bender (Ankle injury) is out for the season. Wendell (unknown) is listed as doubtful for Saturday’s game while Jonathan Tah (Thigh injury) and Chicharito (Thigh injury) are day to day. Karim Bellarabi (Muscle injury) is back in training and he will be available to coach Korkut.
FC BAYERN MUNICH
The Bayern Munich suffered a big blow on Wednesday at home against Real Madrid FC in Champions League quarterfinal first round play, losing with 1:2. The game started very well for Bayern as they scored after Arturo Vidal’s header in the 25th minute. They Bavarians played much better and had more opportunities in the first half but things started going downhill after Vidal’s penalty kick miss at the final minute of the first period, which was awarded after one of the Madrid’s players arguably used his hand in the box. At the beginning of the second half Cristiano Ronaldo scored an equalizer and things went from bad to worse when Bayern’s Javi Martinez got sent off after a foul on Ronaldo at the center of the pitch. The man of the match, Ronaldo scored one more goal before the final whistle to secure a big advantage for Real ahead of the next weeks rematch in Madrid.
In the German Bundesliga, Bayern is without a contender as they are alone on the top with ten points advantage over the second ranked team with 68 points in 28 games. Bayern Munich have won 71% of their away matches (10-2-2 record) and they’ve scored in 86% of their road games with 23-9 goal difference (71-15 overall). They rank first in the road league table with 34 of 42 possible points earned.
Another interesting fact is that they’ve scored the opening goal in 75% of their matches and 73% of their conceded goals occurred in the first half. 57% of Bayern’s road games are under 2.5 goals and 79% of their away matches are under 3.5 goals in total. Most common result on the road is a 1:0 win (occurred three times).
Robert Lewandowski tops the team and the league with 26 goals in 28 games while Arjen Robben has nine goals in his account. Thomas Muller leads the team in assists with 10 while Franck Ribery collected one less. Thiago ALcantara tops the passing segment with 2008 total passes while Mats Hummels has 1655. Goalkeeper Manuel Neuer played in 25 games this season and he collected 50 saves and finished the game with clean sheet 13 times. Sven Ulrich has three starts in which he got seven saves and one game with a clean sheet.
Robert Lewandowski will be unavailable to coach Ancelotti on Saturday as he is suspended for one more match while Mats Hummels (Ankle injury) is expected to be back in training in early May.
I think that Bayern Munich is not a clear favorite in this one because it’s uncertain how the team will react after the midweek home loss in the Champions League. On the other side Leverkusen is playing slightly better lately and a good result against the old rival would partly redeem the otherwise disappointing season for them. My prediction is that Leverkusen will score first and that they won’t lose this game. Considering that Robert Lewandowski will not be available and that the visitors might rest some of their key players looking ahead of the next weeks rematch with Real Madrid, I will go ahead and take the double chance 1X on the home team.
MY PICK: Bayer Leverkusen DC 1X (+135)
