The best player in college football this year was Tua Tagovailoa. Unlike Kyler Murray, who got to pad his stats going against paper-mache defenses in the Big 12, Tagovailoa was competing against the best defenses in the country in the SEC. He helped turn Alabama into an offensive juggernaut for the first time in recent memory, and the Crimson Tide scored 50 points or more in eight games this year with Tagovailoa leading the way. With this in mind, BetDSI has created a prop on the number of yards Tagovailoa will throw for against the Sooners in the Orange Bowl on Saturday.
How many yards will Tua Tagovailoa throw for against Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl?
Over 290.5 -115
Under 290.5 -115
Simple math says that the under is the right play. Tagovailoa threw for 3,353 yards in 13 games this season averaging 257.9 YPG. However, there are a number of other factors to take into consideration for this prop.
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The first is how little time Tagovailoa spent on the field. He sat out the fourth quarter of every game this season prior to the LSU game, and he didn’t throw many passes in the second half. Alabama had already jumped out to a big lead against most of its opponents, and Nick Saban didn’t want to risk Tagovailoa getting injured.
Oklahoma’s ghastly defense is a reason to consider the over as the right play. The Sooners defense was on skates for most of the year, and they gave up yards and points in droves. They gave up 40 or more points in each of their last four regular season games, and one of those opponents was lowly Kansas. Oklahoma largely had to rely on shootouts to win.
That’s another reason to like the over. Oklahoma knows that its best chance of winning is to turn this game into a shootout. The Sooners aren’t going to be able to win a low-scoring game against the Crimson Tide, so they are looking to recreate that strategy that Clemson and Deshaun Watson used versus Alabama. If they do have a lot of success against this defense, Tagovailoa is going to open it up as well, and he could end up having the most prolific game of his young career.
Of course, there are some things that point to the under being the better bet too. Tagovailoa has been dealing with an injured ankle for over a month, and he has been getting around in a protective boot when he is not on the practice field. He has said that he is good to go, and the team said he is a full participant in practice, but ankles can be tricky, and if he is not 100 percent he might struggle.
Saban might decide to keep the ball on the ground as much as possible too. Army nearly beat Oklahoma earlier this season by gashing the front seven, and the Crimson Tide have a better offensive line and running backs that are bruisers behind them. The game-plan might be to pound Oklahoma’s defense as much as possible, and that would mean less chances for Tagovailoa to throw.
This is a tough one, but I believe Tagovailoa will throw for a little over 300 yards in this one. He will want to bounce back after the worst performance of his career against Georgia, and Oklahoma might decide to crowd the line and take their chances against him. That would give him bigger windows and more chances to hit deep balls.
