The May 31st ‘TUF Brazil 3’ UFC card scheduled for May 31st has undergone a big change, as headliner Junior Dos Santos is out of the main event against Stipe Miocic due to injury and has been replaced by Fabio Maldonado. For Miocic, a young up and comer, he goes from being the underdog in the fight with Dos Santos to the clear favorite over Maldonado.
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Credit Maldonado for taking the fight, as he has been competing as a Lightheavyweight and Miocic is a solid 240 lb Heavyweight. With the event in Brazil, a Brazilian opponent for Miocic is a must, so that limits the options, But the match with Maldonado is not appealing.
Maldonado is what he is. He is a popular figure because he displays ample fortitude and other such intangibles that make great fighters. But he is not a great fighter. He was a low level UFC fighter and stepped in previously to face the feared Glover Teixeira. The attention helped him, as he earned a few return matches to the UFC, and he has benefitted greatly from the extra money, improving his conditioning and fighting skills with improved training and resources. It is going to be fed to us as a great story, but signing Maldonado to this match is just stupid.
Mioci is bigger, stronger and faster than Maldonado, so Maldonado will almost certainly be forced to employ his strategy of absorbing punishment while the opponent tires out. The problem is that Miocic has been working on his gas tank, and it has shown a huge improvement. Miocic has beaten Roy Nelson and Gabriel Gonzaga by UD in his last two outings, and he did it by setting the pace in both fights.
Now the over/under on this fight is anybody’s guess. Miocic by decision is the most likely outcome of the fight, but do not rule out the possibility that Miocic could earn a referee stoppage. Maldonado will have a punchers chance, but even if he lands flush, Miocic is very capable of walking through the punches of a smaller man. To use a quote of one of the all time great fighters, Sugar Ray Leonard, ‘When will Maldonado’s injuries for this match heal? When the check clears!