It is time for tutto Calcio Italia, as round 35 of the Serie A campaign kicks off this weekend.
With only four fixtures remaining in the season, the final 12 points available could be crucial for numerous clubs. One club has their eyes on the grand prize of Serie A, as Juventus draws closer to another Scudetto. Two clubs find themselves on the edge of relegation to second tier Serie B.
As we discuss all things Calcio Italia, I will splash some thoughts on what is happening in Serie B as well. We know that three clubs will be leaving Serie A at the end of the campaign, which, in exchange, will lead to three clubs making the move up to top flight Serie A for the 2017/18 campaigns. Pescara has officially been handed their walking papers, guaranteed to be a participant in Serie B next year. Palermo and Crotone are alone in the danger zone as we enter round 35, although Genoa and Empoli face fears of their own as well.
Juventus was the talk of Champions League this past Wednesday, bringing themselves one step closer to a possible treble. With two goals from Gonzalo Higuian, along with a clean sheet from their defense and Gigi Buffon, Juventus claimed a 2 – 0 away win against Monaco to begin the Champions League semifinals on Wednesday. The Old Lady are still in line to possibly win Champions League, the Coppa Italia, and the Serie A title this campaign. Oh, I have an article that might interest you, if you fancy Juventus’ chances to take that triple. Check out my Futures Betting article, where I discuss the entire situation in depth.
With that said, I still have a lot to mention this week, pertaining to both Serie A and Serie B. I will start with the Serie A lines for this weekend, which kicks off with two matches on Saturday, running to eight Sunday fixtures.
Saturday, May 6 – 2 Matches
Napoli vs Cagliari
3-Way 1×2 Lines:
Napoli -725
Cagliari +1650
Draw +850
Handicap/Spread:
Napoli -2.5 -125
Cagliari +2.5 +105
Total 4:
Over +100
Under 120
Juventus vs Torino
Juventus -200
Torino +535
Draw +370
Juventus -1 -125
Torino +1 +105
Total 3.5:
Over +125
Under -145
Sunday – May 7 – 8 Matches
Udinese vs Atalanta
Udinese +365
Atalanta -130
Draw +285
Udinese +0.5 +110
Atalanta -0.5 -130
Total 2.5:
Over -135
Under +115
Chievo Verona vs Palermo
Chievo -160
Palermo +450
Draw +315
Chievo -1 +105
Palermo +1 -125
Total 3:
Over -110
Under -110
Empoli vs Bologna
Empoli -135
Bologna +410
Draw +280
Empoli -0.5 -135
Bologna +0.5 +115
Total 2.5:
Over -120
Under +100
Genoa vs Inter Milan
Genoa +395
Inter -135
Draw +310
Genoa +0.5 +115
Inter -0.5 -135
Total 3:
Over -115
Under -105
Lazio vs Sampdoria
Lazio -435
Sampdoria +1075
Draw +610
Lazio -2 -110
Sampdoria +2 -110
Total 3.5:
Over -125
Under +105
Pescara vs Crotone
Pescara +410
Crotone -155
Draw +335
Pescara +0.5 +135
Crotone -0.5 -155
Total 3.5:
Over +115
Under -135
Sassuolo vs Fiorentina
Sassuolo +220
Fiorentina +120
Draw +260
Sassuolo +0.5 -140
Fiorentina -0.5 +120
Total 3:
Over -125
Under +105
AC Milan vs AS Roma
Milan +235
Roma +115
Draw +265
Milan +0.5 -135
Roma -0.5 +115
Total 3:
Over -135
Under +115
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For those of you taking advantage of my Serie B dominance this year, round 40 begins on Friday. I am probably going to lay off the first match with Perugia and Spezia, but I will surely have a handful of plays for Saturday.
It’s been quite a campaign in second tier, and I like being able to talk all things Calcio Italia. I open up the resume even more when the second half of the Lega Pro campaign gets underway. It’s been my routine for the last six years or so. I am a full boar with Serie A and Serie B all season, and I jump in to Serie C betting in January. I just like to peek in on what is going on down there for the first half of the campaign, and then pick my spots with totals for the most part. It really comes down to value too, because I am always looking for some +money lines being offered down there.
Who doesn’t love value? When I see +110 or +125 on a AH 2 & 2.5 line, you bet your ass I will take advantage of it! It’s nice to be able to show anyone the last two seasons of offers that I have suggested in lower tiers of Calcio Italia. I track things on the internet for those people who like to see that stuff, as I have for years. That’s why I welcome those who say, “Do you keep track of your plays you post”? Sure thing man, how far back would you like to go?
I posted a video somewhere years ago, and showed everyone the books I have for Lega Calcio Italia. Since 2000, I can give you the score and lines of any match that has been played in both Serie A and Serie B. Handwritten! Sure, you can likely go find a site that has all the scores, going back further than that, most likely. I can break it out in front of me, no internet needed. There is no need for a tablet, phone, PC, computer, or internet connection, any of it. Why? Because I can, and because it helps me soak in what happened better than just reading it online.
I assume anyone in the ‘old school’ era like me, thinks writing things down makes it easier to remember. As the digital age gets deeper in technology, handwritten material becomes even less available then it was back then. It was a newspaper, a pen and paper, a typewriter, or a rotary phone if you wanted to communicate with people.
Satellite dish? Cell phone? Internet? PlayStation? 72″ Plasma Smart TV’s that are camera and voice capable?
Yeah, you keep thinking that we lived like that back then, and then hit the smelling salts!
Luckily, we do have what we have today, be it for the good or bad according to some opinions around the world.
For now, back to the pitch, but I wanted to at least tell you about my handwritten stuff I do. No one has ever accused me of being too personal in my articles.
Speaking of totals, Italian Serie A is up to 973 goals on the campaign. I have mentioned in a couple of articles this year that we would be getting to the 1000 goals scored mark.
Most of the chatter surrounding Calcio Italia this weekend is the prospect that Juventus can win the Scudetto. With a nine-point lead and three remaining fixtures, a Juventus win and any drop of points from Roma will ensure Juventus the Serie A title.
Torino might be hoping Juventus is looking ahead to next week’s Champions League match with Monaco. I guess someone could use that angle, but really? I get that Torino was one of only five Serie A clubs to not lose in April, but they have nothing to gain or lose now. There will be no demotion, and there will not be any club competitions in Europe next year either.
There really isn’t any action to be found in the Juventus / Torino match, other than the -1 @ -125. The line setters sure expect some kind of high-scoring scenario, with a 3.5 listed on the total. We don’t see straight 3.5’s on Juve totals too often, if even a 3 much. I think it stems from the Atalanta result, but we knew that was coming. At least I did, because it’s posted here on the site in last week’s Calcio Italia article. So, if you need the action on Saturday, I would suggest a small play on the Juve -1, if anything.
It was a bit surprising to me to see that Inter Milan / Napoli match end 1 – 0 last weekend. Obviously, I expected more from that game, but Napoli did get three big points. It looks like Roma and Napoli are going to fight for the Champions League group stage entry that comes with the second spot in the Serie A table. Third place will still give a Serie A club a Champions League bid, but they will have to start in the qualifying rounds. I am not touching that match in Naples, but the Roma / Juventus match next weekend could be interesting.
Anyway, Sunday there is a match with some value on the total.
Atalanta and Udinese should have a little fun against each other, but that Over 2.5 is too pricey. I suggest a line movement to the straight 3, and grab that Over at +125. We would need three goals to cash the 2.5 anyway, and I would rather push a +125 with 3, than hit something at -135. Not that I am completely opposed to lines that high, but I don’t work for Tropicana, so squeeze your own juice!
Suggested Play:
Udinese / Atalanta
Total Goals Over 3 @ +125
There is one case where I don’t mind paying a little juice, however, although I guess we can avoid it.
How many goals do I expect at Mapei Stadium? Oh, let me count the ways! Once again, I think a line move can avoid the juice, and I am simply not scared. Sassuolo and the Viola are going to go absolutely berserk on each other, in my opinion. Why settle for the -125 in fact, when we can just add a measly half goal to chase some value.
Suggested Play:
Sassuolo / Fiorentina
Total Goals Over 3.5 @ +125
AS Roma supposedly have a big match against Milan at the San Siro. That will almost guarantee that Francesco Totti will be starting the match sitting in a chair. If the derby against Lazio only deserved 20 minutes of his time in a loss, that should be about all we get now from him. I am assuming that no one wearing a #10 Roma uniform will be contributing anything worth talking about for the remainder of the campaign. Well, I guess he could come on in the 81st minute on Sunday, because he won’t be needed at that point anyway.
Let me say this: I was one instant away from tweeting to Totti about boots, hanging, pointless, waste, and then I just didn’t bother. I mean these last three years have been a complete joke, and I am sick of even having to say it again.
So that will be that when it comes to Mr. Rome, because I have better memories to take with me.
Before I mention some Serie B stuff this weekend, I want to put in one more total.
That straight 3 in Verona is too nice to lay off. I mean if you want to hit me with -110 on a Over 3 with Chievo and Palermo on the same pitch? Then I can oblige you by putting it in my pending section of my book.
Chievo Verona / Palermo
Total Goals Over 3 @ -110
Quickly, in reference to second tier Calcio Italia.
Do I think Spal is guaranteed promotion to Serie A next campaign? Spal, Hellas Verona and Frosinone are locked in a three-way battle for two guaranteed spots in top flight next year. So much football will be played after the regular season closes in second tier, with playoff scenarios to move both up, and down tiers.
Third place through eighth place will compete in the Serie B playoffs, for the ONE SPOT left to advance to Serie A. In all, seven of the 22 Serie B clubs will either move up or down a tier in Calcio Italia. I will be covering all of it, so if you are looking for my second tier offers, I am obviously not hard to find.
I do think Spal will take one of those two automatic entries, by the way. Hellas Verona would certainly like to get right back to top flight football, although Frosinone could still earn the top seed in the promotion playoffs, if they fail to get past Verona, or catch Spal outright. There are only six points separating the three clubs, with three fixtures left to play. I love talking about, and analyzing, all the scenarios that we could see. Even a club in 10th or 11th place in Serie B right now, has mathematical odds to be in the playoff. Fun stuff really, but okay, let’s get you all out of here.
To get in on all of the action, Diamond offers both Serie A & B in the soccer section.
Have yourselves an outstanding weekend and, of course, In Bocca Al Lupo! Ciao!
