The No.2-seeded UC Irvine Anteaters face the No.7-seeded Cal Poly Mustangs in the first round of the BigWst tournament at Honda Center. The game begins at 9:00 pm ET on Thursday, Mar. 10.
The Anteaters played well in their last game, defeating UC Riverside 76-66 the last time they played. Luke Nelson had 18 points, three rebounds, and two assists for UC Irvine. The Mustangs, meanwhile, are feeling some disappointment after the demoralizing 69-50 loss at the hands of UC Santa Barbara in their last game. David Nwaba had a good shooting night, leading the game with 15 points.
Nelson has really been playing well over the last five games for the Anteaters. During that stretch, he has averaged 16.4 points, 2.2 rebounds, 5.4 assists, 2.2 steals, and 2.4 three-pointers.
Baskets could be hard to come by as UC Irvine ranks seventh in the nation, allowing just 97.9 points per 100 possessions, while Cal Poly is 27th (109.3). Also, the Mustangs commit the fewest errors in the nation (TO% of 15.0%), while the disruptive defense of the Anteaters causes the 23rd-most (opponents’ TO% of 17.5%).
The Anteaters have won both matchups against the Mustangs this season, including a 72-62 victory in their last matchup. Nwaba had a double-double in the loss with 25 points and 10 rebounds.
The Anteaters are attempting to build on their records of 24-8 Straight Up (SU) and 15-14-1 Against The Spread (ATS). In their last 10 games, they are 2-8 ATS. UC Irvine’s defense can be considered one of the best in the country. The Anteaters allow a .387 opponent field-goal percentage, one of the lowest shooting rates in the country.
On the other side, the Mustangs have 10-19 SU and 8-18 ATS records. When it comes to making good decisions with the ball, not many are better than the Mustangs. They have one of the top assist-to-turnover ratios in the country at 1.38. Switching gears to the Cal Poly defense, the Mustangs allow very few three-pointers on defense with 7.0 given up per game.
UC Irvine beat Cal Poly in their most recent meeting this season, bringing its SU record to 7-3 over Cal Poly in their most recent games. With a 7-3 record, the Anteaters also have the advantage ATS. UC Irvine held the edge in field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers one time in the last five, while Cal Poly wasn’t able to do so in that span.
Predictions: SU Winner – CalPly, ATS Winner – CalPly
Notes
Cal Poly lost its last game by a 19-point margin. In games decided by a margin of 18 points or more, UC Irvine is 6-3. Cal Poly is 1-4 in blowouts this season.
The UC Irvine Anteaters have a defensive rating of 97.9 (ranked seventh), while the Cal Poly Mustangs have an offensive rating of 106.3 (ranked 170th).
The UC Irvine Anteaters average a field goal percentage of 46.3% this season. The Cal Poly Mustangs have a subpar record of 2-14 when opponents have a FG% of 46.3% or greater.
The UC Irvine Anteaters rank higher based on their field goal percentage (62nd) than their effective field goal percentage (105th). The Cal Poly Mustangs rank higher based on their effective field goal percentage (262nd) than their field goal percentage (281st).
UC Irvine ranks 60th in assists, registering 15.2 per game. Cal Poly performs worse at 121st with 14.2 assists per game.
The UC Irvine Anteaters average 5.3 blocks per game, the 19th-ranked team in the country. The Cal Poly Mustangs rank a lowly 212th in blocking with just 3.1 per game.
Cal Poly makes an average of 5.5 steals per game. UC Irvine has a winning 14-6 record when it allows at least 5 steals.
