The UC Davis Aggies (21-9, 12-4 BigWst) clash with the UC Riverside Highlanders (9-21, 4-12 BigWst) in the Big West Conference Tourney at Honda Center. The game gets underway at 3 p.m. ET on Thursday, March 8, 2018.
UC Davis opened as a 7-point favorite, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 131 points.
UC Riverside Highlanders vs. UC Davis Aggies Free Prediction
In the Highlanders’ last contest, they were blown out by the Long Beach State 49ers, 77-59. Long Beach State won the rebounding battle. The 49ers had more offensive rebounds (12 vs. four), defensive rebounds (29 vs. 23) and total rebounds (41 vs. 27). Chance Murray was the top scorer from either team with 18 points on 5-for-15 shooting.
The Aggies beat the UC Irvine Anteaters in their last contest, 90-84. The Aggies had a superb turnover percentage of 9.3 (better than their season average of 17.2), while the Anteaters had a free throw rate of 0.188 (below the 0.266 mark opponents have averaged against UC Davis this season). TJ Shorts II was UC Davis’ leading scorer with 21 points on 6-for-18 shooting.
UC Davis figures to have the edge on the defensive side of the ball. The Aggies rank 79th in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.487), while UC Riverside is 340th in effective field goal percentage (0.454). It could also be an error-filled game for the offense of the Highlanders, which ranks 272nd in ball protection (turnover percentage of 20.0 percent). They’ll be going up against the stingy defense of the Aggies, which forces the 22nd-most turnovers in the nation (22.6 percent).
UC Riverside heads into the game with records of 9-21 straight up (SU) and 13-12 against the spread (ATS). Highlanders games have a tendency to go under the total (68.0 percent).
Meanwhile, UC Davis is 21-9 SU and 16-9-2 ATS. Contrary to UC Riverside, Aggies games have a tendency to finish over the projected point total (59.3 percent).
Both teams have had a player step their game up over their last five games. Murray (17.2 points, 5.6 rebounds, 3.6 assists and 3.0 steals) has been fantastic for the Highlanders while Shorts II (17.6 points, 5.6 rebounds, 5.0 assists and 2.4 steals) has contributed greatly to the Aggies.
The Aggies have won both matchups against the Highlanders this season, including a narrow 64-63 victory in their last matchup. UC Davis was unable to cover as an 11-point favorite and the game finished with a total of 127 points, which was 6.5 points below the projected point total of 133.5 points. The Aggies had a better free throw rate (0.239 vs. 0.185) and had a better effective field goal percentage (0.576 vs. 0.491). Murray was the top overall scorer in the game with 24 points.
UC Riverside Highlanders vs. UC Davis Aggies Betting Pick
Free Basketball Pick: SU Winner – UC Davis, ATS Winner – UC Riverside, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
UC Davis ranks 122nd in rebounds allowed per game (34.2) while UC Riverside ranks 281st (38.8).
The Aggies average 7.2 steals per game, which ranks 53rd in the NCAA. The Highlanders rank 179th in steals allowed per game (6.7).
UC Riverside ranks 248th in three pointers attempted per game (19.2) while UC Davis ranks 288th (17.3).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, UC Riverside is 3-2 ATS with 3 unders, 1 over and 1 push.
UC Davis is 4-1 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over their last five games.
The Highlanders’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 2.2, down from 4.5 for the season.
During their last five games, the Aggies have scored an average of 77.4 points per game (3.9 above their season average) and allowed an average of 68.8 points per game (0.4 above their season average).
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