A couple of schools that prefer running the football, Bulls (+15) are gearing up to host their AAC foe No. 8 Ucf Knights (-15) in South Florida. Kickoff for this important game is scheduled for 4:15 p.m. ET and ESPN has the TV rights.
UCF Knights at South Florida Bulls Betting Preview
South Florida is entering this AAC game as a noticeable underdog and is currently being given 15 points. The Knights are also receiving -840 moneyline odds while the Bulls are +550. If one side can catch a lucky break in the early stages it will create a solid in-game betting opportunity. Oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 68.5 points.
Early action has been leaning toward the Knights. The line originally opened at 13.5 and the total was initially set at 68.
The surprising Knights have gained 5.0 units so far in 2018 and are 7-3 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an Over-Under record of 3-7. The Bulls have gained 0.1 units this season. The team is 4-7 ATS and has an even O/U record of 5-5.
The Knights have gone 10-0 straight up (SU), including 7-0 SU against AAC opponents. The Bulls are 7-4 SU overall and 3-4 SU in conference play.
The Knights are looking to remain unbeaten after a 38-13 win over Cincinnati last week. McKenzie Milton completed just 13 passes on 25 attempts for 268 yards and three touchdowns. Adrian Killins Jr. (four receptions, 82 yards, two TDs) and Dredrick Snelson (three catches, 56 yards) handled the receiving duties.
One week ago, Temple knocked off this South Florida team by a score of 27-17. The Bulls defensive secondary let the Owls air it out for 264 yards. Ryquell Armstead had a productive outing, recording 64 rushing yards and a score on 26 attempts for Temple. For South Florida, Blake Barnett completed 14-of-23 passes for 82 yards and two interceptions. Jordan Cronkrite (83 yards on 17 rush attempts, two TDs) and Johnny Ford (58 yards on 14 carries) mounted the ground game in the defeat as Ryeshene Bronson (four receptions, 25 yards) and Tyre McCants (three catches, 32 yards) led the receiving attack.
UCF has run the ball on 59.0 percent of its offensive possessions this year while South Florida has a rush percentage of 53.8 percent. The Knights have produced 258 rush yards per game (including 255 per game versus American Athletic Conference opponents) and have 31 touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Bulls are logging 203 rush yards per game (183 in conference) and have 26 total rushing TDs.
It seems like the Knights may hold an edge in terms of RB effectiveness. Their backfield has produced 5.8 yards per carry while the defense is allowing a YPC of 4.5 to opponents. The Bulls have recorded 5.1 yards per carry and given up 4.8 YPC to opponents.
The Knights offense has logged 271 yards per contest through the air overall (261 per game against conference opposition) and has 25 passing TDs so far. The Bulls have put up 254 pass yards per contest (228.3 against AAC foes) and have 14 total pass scores.
Defensively, UCF has let opponents run for an average of 213 yards and pass for 206 yards per game. The South Florida defense has allowed 200.0 yards per game to opposing passers and 231.4 yards per game on the ground. The Knights are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 4.85 to opponents, while the Bulls have given up a 5.47 ANY/A.
Offensively, Milton has amassed 2,377 passing yards on the year, and has completed 58 percent of his 258 attempts with 22 scores through the air and only five interceptions. Milton has a pristine 9.48 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 11.12 over the past two outings.
The Knights will probably try to control the pace by getting the ball into the hands of their running backs. Backfield mates Adrian Killins Jr. (490 rush yards, four rush TDs, 364 receiving yards, four receiving TDs) and Greg McCrae (613 rush yards, four rush TDs, 74 receiving yards, one receiving TD) have brought significant production to the UCF offensive scheme.
In the other locker room, Chris Oladokun has completed 12-of-27 passes for 190 yards, two TDs and zero INTs. Oladokun’s ANY/A stands at 6.25 for the year and 6.96 over his last two outings.
The Bulls should also look to control the clock by turning to their backfield. Ryeshene Bronson (177 receiving yards) has chipped in lately, but Johnny Ford (554 rush yards, eight rush TDs) and Jordan Cronkrite (1,029 rush yards, nine rush TDs) have seen a lot of looks lately.
When these two teams met last year, UCF won by a touchdown 49-42.
RELATED: Week 13 College Football Betting Odds and Predictions
NCAA Prediction: UCF Knights at South Florida Bulls
SU Winner – Knights, ATS Winner – Knights, O/U – Over
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Notes
Team Betting Trends
The O/U for UCF’s previous game was set at 60. The under cashed in the team’s 38-13 victory over Cincinnati.
UCF has produced 5.7 yards per carry over its past three contests and 4.9 over its last two.
South Florida has averaged 3.3 yards per carry over its last three outings and 3.4 over its last two.
The South Florida offense has lost nine fumbles this season while UCF has let three get away.
In its last three matches, UCF is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
The O/U for South Florida’s previous outing was 62.5. The under cashed in the team’s 27-17 loss to Temple.
In its last three matchups, South Florida is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
The Knights offense has tallied eight pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Bulls have accounted for 11 such plays.
The UCF defense has allowed three pass plays of 40+ yards, while South Florida has given up six such plays.
The UCF offense has created 24 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while South Florida has created 19 such runs.
The Knights defense has allowed 14 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Bulls have given up 27 such runs.
The South Florida defense has created 28 sacks on the year while UCF has just 21.
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